Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. THIS IS BEING SPAWNED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN GRIPPING OUR REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE WEST ALLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH ALONG
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF...AND
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FURTHER NORTH. WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2.1 INCHES BASED ON BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY...ASCENT FROM
THESE FEATURES AND THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THESE STORMS. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALLOWING HEAT INDICES TO REACH 100
TO 105 OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...AND UP TO 109 IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. HOWEVER...THE HEAT OUTSIDE OF THE DELTA SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
WITH CONVECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED...HEAT STRESS WILL BE ALLEVIATED
INTO THE WEEKEND AND THUS THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 7PM. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE
TOMORROW WITH HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK
BOUNDARY/TROUGH THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS IS
ALSO CONFIRMED BY 12Z LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE. HAVE LEFT IN CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN WE SHOULD BE ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/A LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY/SHEAR AXIS AND
PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH MODEL PW VALUES OF 2 TO
2.5 INCHES. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE BUT AREAS IN THE DELTA SHOULD SEE MORE STORMS
THAN TODAY WITH THE RIDGE PUSHED FURTHER TO THE WEST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO SVR STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED DAILY GIVEN HOW MUCH
CONVECTION LINGERS OVERNIGHT...HOW MUCH INSOLATION/WARMING WE CAN
GET DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. MODEL LAPSE RATES NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE AND ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES. ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW...STORM MOTIONS MAY BE SLOW ENOUGH TO BRING
LOCALIZED FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY.

MOS NUMBERS GENERALLY ACCEPTED. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE SUFFERING ONCE
AGAIN WITH GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES BUT FEEL THAT HIGH ADVERTISED
POPS STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. /28/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO REBUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS WE
GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY AND AN INCREASE IN HEAT STRESS. AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER > 2 INCHES) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT
TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
TEMPORARILY REPLENISH THE MOISTURE AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THE LOWERING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO THIS
WAVE...AND HAVE OPTED TO CUT BACK A LITTLE ON THE HIGHER GFS MOS POPS
FOR WED/WED NIGHT. ONCE THIS WAVE PUSHES WEST OF THE AREA...THE RIDGE
WILL INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY AND WE EXPECT A RETURN TO VERY HOT
CONDITIONS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HAVE RAISED GFS MOS TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND CUT POPS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED PATTERN. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...A BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH IN THE NORTH AND A WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WERE ENHANCING CONVECTION THIS AFTN IN THE
EAST. ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT GLH HAVE BEEN AFFECTED THUS FAR...BUT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY 04Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN HALF
AFTER 09Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 15Z BUT COVERAGE OF STORMS
SATURDAY WILL BE GREATER AND MAY INITIATE EARLIER. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  91  75  91 /  52  63  52  65
MERIDIAN      76  87  73  90 /  63  72  44  63
VICKSBURG     76  93  75  92 /  43  53  52  61
HATTIESBURG   76  88  74  90 /  39  84  40  71
NATCHEZ       76  92  75  90 /  31  68  42  65
GREENVILLE    76  93  75  93 /  50  46  35  43
GREENWOOD     76  92  75  91 /  54  55  39  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>036-040>042-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

28/EC/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
311 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-047-172015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
311 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...QUARTER SIZED
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

OTHERWISE...DANGEROUS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX READINGS RANGING FROM 105 TO 109.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ029>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-172015-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
311 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...QUARTER SIZED
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MSZ025-027-035-036-162140-
LEFLORE MS-CARROLL MS-HOLMES MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
410 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

A STRONG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WERE LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
TCHULA AT 410 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS...NORTHWESTERN HOLMES...WEST
CENTRAL CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN LEFLORE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
07/16/2010                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND TOWN. SOME POWER
            OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED AS WELL.

&&

CME

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
452 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SSW MONTICELLO        31.46N 90.16W
07/16/2010                   LAWRENCE           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW POWER LINES DOWN OFF HWY 27.

&&

CME