Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. STORMS BEGINNING TO
POP UP IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF MY CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL JET...SAGGING WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE
NORTH AND DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH ALABAMA/NORTH FLORIDA. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE WEST. THE
NW/DELTA/WEST OF THE RIVER WILL HAVE THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE HANGS ON JUST A BIT OVER THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES HERE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE
105-109 RANGE. THEREFORE...CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD.
HOWEVER...IF/WHEN STORMS POP OVER THIS REGION...THIS IS THE LOCATION
WITH THE HIGHER DCAPE...AND GIVEN HOTTER TEMPS...COULD BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH BUT FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED.
FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT REACH AS WARM GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. OPTED TO INCLUDE COVERAGE WORDING FOR THE EAST WHERE STORMS
ONGOING AND LEFT UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEST. UPDATE PRODUCTS GOING OUT.
/28/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES AT
MID MORNING. A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO HELP SPAWN
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED EAST WITH ISOLATED
WEST. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/PATCHY FOG
OVER THE EAST TONIGHT AFTER 09Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  74  91  75 /  36  54  59  30
MERIDIAN      95  73  88  74 /  46  39  60  41
VICKSBURG     96  74  92  74 /  25  49  53  28
HATTIESBURG   93  74  89  75 /  60  42  69  36
NATCHEZ       94  74  91  75 /  27  32  60  32
GREENVILLE    97  74  93  75 /  34  38  36  19
GREENWOOD     95  73  91  74 /  39  41  39  21

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>036-040>042-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

28/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-047-170845-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
340 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DANGEROUS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX READINGS RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MSZ029>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-170845-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
340 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE
BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL NOT BE NEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

02

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1156 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MSZ032-033-038-161735-
OKTIBBEHA MS-CHOCTAW MS-WINSTON MS-
1156 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER ACKERMAN AT 1156 AM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL WINSTON...EAST CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MSZ030-031-033-161740-
CLAY MS-LOWNDES MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-
1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF SESSUMS AT 1210 PM CDT. THE STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER THE URBAN AREAS OF STARKVILLE
OVER THE NEXT ONE HALF HOUR TO HOUR. RAIN FALL RATES ARE NEAR 2
INCHES PER HOUR. IF RAIN CONTINUES AT THIS RATE...A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING MAY BE ISSUED.  PLEASE USE CAUTION.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN OKTIBBEHA...WEST CENTRAL LOWNDES AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CLAY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MSZ038-161830-
WINSTON MS-
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF LOUISVILLE AT 1251 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN WINSTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MSZ030-031-033-161840-
CLAY MS-LOWNDES MS-OKTIBBEHA MS-
1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF MONTPELIER TO 12 MILES NORTH
OF CALEDONIA AT 1258 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN OKTIBBEHA...NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES AND CLAY
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
115 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MSZ066-161835-
JONES MS-
115 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF OVETT AT 116 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
124 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MSZ058-161845-
CLARKE MS-
124 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF CRANDALL AT 124 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

CME