Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.UPDATE...A WELL-DEFINED UPPER(200MB) LOW JUST NW OF LAKE
PONCHARTRAIN SPINNING NEWD TOWARD KMCB WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
BREAKING OUT NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EXPECT ASCENT TO BE
INCREASING OVER SERN MS DURING MAX HEATING SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS
IN SERN MS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOB ANALYSES SHOWING AT
LEAST A RISK FOR WET MICROBURSTS FROM THE STORMS WITH PROGGED SBCAPES
OF 3200J/KG AND DCAPE OF NEARLY 1100J/KG ALONG WITH VERTICAL TOTALS
RUNNING AT 28. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR
MAINLY SKY COVER/QPFS.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE NEAR COLLINS THIS EVENING AND HEAD PAST
KMEI LATE TONIGHT LEAVING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IN IT/S WAKE. UPDATES
SHOULD ALL BE POSTED AND AVAILABLE./40/

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
15/1700 UTC AND 16/0200 UTC...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KT
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO RESULT
IN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALONG WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN
16/1000 UTC AND 16/1300 UTC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...RESULTING IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. /COHEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
DURING THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE CWA.

RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING...SO STORMS
SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY. WHILE WE HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT FOR A
PERIOD...THESE COULD DUMP HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES INCREASING
INTO THE 1.7 TO NEAR 2 INCH RANGE. AGAIN...FEEL THAT THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE. AFTERNOON STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND LEAVE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR AS THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LINGER
IN THE REGION AS WELL AS A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LOOK HIGHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE(WITH PW
VALUES INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES) WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME...MODELS NOT SHOWING TOO COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...THUS VT
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. MODEL DCAPE NOT OVERLY HIGH AND NOT CONFIDENT IN
HOW HIGH MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO BETTER
ASSESS THE RISK DAY BY DAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY CAME IN RATHER
LOW WITH THE MAV GUI AND WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION THAT DAY...FEEL FAIRLY SURE WE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
90(INSTEAD OF UPPER 80S THAT GUI GAVE). RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH GENERAL READINGS IN THE 90-92 RANGE.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO GUI WERE TO RAISE POPS FOR TODAY. FEEL THAT THE
NAM MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH THE HIGHER POPS BUT JUST NOT
COMFORTABLE GOING AS HIGH BUT DID NOT LIKE THE LOW GFS POPS. RAISED
MOS BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE NAM. LIKEWISE WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD...LOWERED SOME SITES
JUST A TAD WHERE MOS CAME IN JUST A BIT TOO HIGH. TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY CAME IN DECENT BUT LOWERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES AT SOME SITES
LIKELY TO SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS. /28/

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT THU AND REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL DISCREPANCIES
CONTINUE REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
THE GFS SHOWS A SERIES OF WAVES THAT TRACK OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIFT THAT MAINTAIN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WHILE THE EURO IS SHOWING STRONGER RIDGING THAT ALLOWS
LITTLE OR NO WAVE ACTIVITY THIS FAR SOUTH. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS MORE IN LINE...BOTH REFLECTING A WWD SHIFT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTER WITH BOTH AGREEING THAT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST
ISOLATED DAYTIME AND EVENING CONVECTION IF THE RIDGE WERE TO HOLD
STRONG CONSIDERING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT PERSIST AND
HEALTHY CAPE VALUES. GFS POPS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AND ERN ZONES...LOOK REASONABLE AND
WILL BE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION. FOLLOWED MEX MOS
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH MONDAY. FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HAVE FAVORED HIGHER ENSEMBLE MOS SOLUTIONS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S. MEX MOS LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO COOL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  73  91  73 /  34  32  57  24
MERIDIAN      95  72  91  71 /  41  35  55  32
VICKSBURG     95  73  92  72 /  19  27  53  18
HATTIESBURG   94  74  92  73 /  52  27  56  34
NATCHEZ       92  73  90  72 /  37  22  49  27
GREENVILLE    95  75  92  72 /  18  29  50  16
GREENWOOD     95  74  91  72 /  18  30  53  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

MSZ031-038-039-043>046-048>066-072>074-160945-
LOWNDES-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
444 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. THIS ACTIVITY
COMES AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COMBINES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL
BE FROM WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>030-032>037-
040>042-047-160945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
YAZOO-WARREN-
444 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

28

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