Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THE WELL-DEFINED
UPPER(200-300MB) LOW SPINNING OVER KMCB MOVING NEWD WITH SCTD/NMRS
SHRA/TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA E OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.
EXPECT ASCENT TO CONTINUE WITH CELL MERGERS INCREASING OVER SERN MS
THROUGH SUNSET AND WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST EVENING POPS IN ERN MS.
RISK FOR WET MICROBURSTS HAS PANNED OUT QUITE WELL WITH ONE OF THE
BIGGEST ONES ACROSS THE FLOWOOD AREA OF ERN JACKSON METRO AREA
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM CDT. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PASS JUST NEAR THE
COLLINS TO MAGEE AREAS THIS EVENING AND HEAD THRU NEWTON LATER
TONIGHT LEAVING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IN IT/S WAKE ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
SERN HALF OF MS.

ONCE THE SHRA/TSRA DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG AT LOCATIONS WHERE RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST IN LOW LYING
AREAS NEAR CREEKS/STREAMS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO LATEST ADJUSTED
GRIDS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OTHERWISE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DAYTIME INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY REIGNITES THE
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 50-60MPH WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION IN HWOJAN. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS 2+ INCHES WILL RESULT
IN A FEW GULLY WASHERS/FROG STRANGLERS WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS. HIGH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER/SHORTER IN DURATION...A
BRIEF WINDOW OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ALL WE NEED TO HIT THE MAV MOS
NUMBERS SO DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL AND 850MB ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEGIN
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD NWD. SOMEWHAT WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW SHOULD
ALLOW EVENING STORMS TO TAPER OFF MORE QUICKLY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S./40/

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION OF LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT
THU AND REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. THE GFS SHOWS A SERIES OF WAVES THAT TRACK OVER THE RIDGE
THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIFT THAT MAINTAIN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WHILE THE EURO IS SHOWING STRONGER RIDGING THAT
ALLOWS LITTLE OR NO WAVE ACTIVITY THIS FAR SOUTH. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS MORE IN LINE...BOTH REFLECTING A WWD SHIFT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTER WITH BOTH AGREEING THAT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST
ISOLATED DAYTIME AND EVENING CONVECTION IF THE RIDGE WERE TO HOLD
STRONG CONSIDERING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT PERSIST AND
HEALTHY CAPE VALUES. GFS POPS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AND ERN ZONES...LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL BE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION. FOLLOWED MEX MOS
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH MONDAY. FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...HAVE FAVORED HIGHER ENSEMBLE MOS SOLUTIONS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S. MEX MOS LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO COOL./03/

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND 16/0200 UTC...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MS. ALSO...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KT ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCAL IFR CEILINGS/
VISIBILITIES. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MS BETWEEN
16/0900 UTC AND 16/1300 UTC. /COHEN/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  73  95 /  30  55  22  32
MERIDIAN      72  92  72  93 /  43  62  31  35
VICKSBURG     73  94  72  96 /  22  44  15  17
HATTIESBURG   74  93  74  95 /  41  62  29  44
NATCHEZ       73  93  72  94 /  11  47  15  17
GREENVILLE    75  95  73  95 /  27  45  15  16
GREENWOOD     74  94  72  94 /  36  52  22  21

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-162000-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BETWEEN
2 PM AND 7 PM WEDNESDAY. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-162000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BETWEEN 2 PM AND
7 PM WEDNESDAY. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COHEN

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