Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
WILL BE THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS OBSERVED OVER
ILLINOIS WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED SOUTH TO AROUND
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER MCS
TO THE NORTH WAS SPREADING SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION. THIS HAD TRIGGERED
SOME STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS PROVIDING LIFT FOR THE STORMS. LOCAL AND
NATIONAL WRF SHOWS THE BEST COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IN THE EAST. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS FOR LATER TONIGHT. SO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL QUICKLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO COME INTO THE REGION FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME RATHER AMPLIFIED AS WE GO INTO
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO
MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...300 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...

OVERALL...A MOSTLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
ARKLAMISS NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THIS PATTERN...INDICATING THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL MAINTAIN A HOT
RIDGE OVER THE ARKLAMISS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS IN THE
GUIDANCE THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MIGRATE WWD AND LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE
WEEK...PERHAPS LEADING TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE STAGNANT PATTERN.

WHILE AFTN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE HOT SIDE AND
ABOVE 90F...THE GFS MEX MOS APPEARS TOO WARM AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO
FAR THIS YEAR AND HAVE BLENDED THE COOLER GFS ENSEMBLE MOS FOR
FORECASTED HIGHS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
GREATER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AS GO INTO TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...BUT SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WEST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN ZONES WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE BKN-OVC FROM
3-5K FEET WITH SCT-BKN DECKS FROM 15-25 FEET. LOCAL IFR/MVFR
CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHWRS/TSTMS. RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS AFTERNOON HEATING SUBSIDES. WILL SEE
SCT DECKS BELOW 6000 THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AROUND SUNRISE. FOG WILL CLEAR BY 9 AM AT MOST SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  93  68  93 /  20   3   4   6
MERIDIAN      65  95  65  95 /  26   2   4   6
VICKSBURG     67  92  67  93 /  14   3   4   7
HATTIESBURG   69  95  67  95 /  23   2   4   3
NATCHEZ       69  91  69  91 /  12   3   4   4
GREENVILLE    69  93  70  94 /  16   3   4   7
GREENWOOD     68  93  70  93 /  20   3   3   6

17/03/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
217 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-221930-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
217 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WIND UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL OCCUR AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY PRODUCE
PONDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL DECREASE AS
AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES THIS EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND WILL END AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-047-053-059>061-221930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-
CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
217 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND WEST
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL DECREASE AS
AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES THIS EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WILL END AT MOST LOCATIONS
BY 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STARKVILLE              33.46N 88.82W
05/21/2010                   OKTIBBEHA          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OKTIBBEHA EMA REPORTS SEVERAL ROADS WERE UNDER WATER
            ACROSS THE CITY OF STARKVILLE. AFFECTED ROADWAYS INCLUDED
            LINDBERG BLVD...S WASHINGTON ST...MARTIN LUTHER KING JR
            DR...AND SCALES ST

&&

DL

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