River Flood Warning 67, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1105 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.UPDATE...AS OF LATE THIS MORNING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AS ASSOCIATED TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDED SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF THE REGION. AN MCS WAS NOTED JUST
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...TRACKING EAST. AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH GOOD VISIBLE CUMULUS
FIELDS ON SATELLITE. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS NOTED TO BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES. LOCAL AND NATIONAL WRF ENSEMBLES SHOWS THE BEST COVERAGE TO BE
IN THE EAST HALF FOR TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR SOME CONVECTION WITH LIMITED FORCING. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
THE EAST...BUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE EAST
HALF. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL KEEP THE MID 80S NORTH DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER FROM THE EARLY MORNING RAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...300 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOLLOWING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TSRA IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS
WELL TO OUR NW LEAVING OUR AREA IN A CONTINUED WARM MOIST AIR MASS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW SPINNING NEWD
ACROSS NW IL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE W.  A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND FROM SERN AR
INTO NWRN AL HELPING SET OFF THE LATEST ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS
MORNING. LOCAL WRF MODEL RUNS RAMP UP THIS CONVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY
ALONG AND N OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY REACHING 1-2 INCHES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF STRONG STORMS IN
THE HWOJAN AS LAST WAVE OF UVV SWINGS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AROUND
THE UPPER LOW. PWATS PROGGED TO ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.7 TO 1.4
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DRYING ALOFT ANTICIPATED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEST DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE ACROSS SERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE AGAIN 2500J/KG MLCAPES RETURN WITH MUCH
WEAKER BRN SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAN ON THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITIES FOR STORMS.  MOST OF
THE STORMS SHOULD DEPART ERN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS FROM THE S BEGIN TO ASSERT THEIR PRESENCE WITH WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. BY TONIGHT...NWLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS IN DRYING PWATS OF
1.1 INCHES OR LOWER ALTHOUGH A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD WILL
LIKELY BE LEFT IN PLACE DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN A PROLONGED DRYING SPELL. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE CURRENT TEMP REGIME EXCEPT THAT HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT
CLOSER TO 90F AND OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY 66-71F./40/

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE...RESULTING IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIDESPREAD SCT-BKN DECKS FROM 15-25 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED...OCCASIONALLY OVC WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN
SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL SEE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ERN LOCATIONS TODAY.
RAIN ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS ITS MAIN
FORCING...AFTERNOON HEATING...DECREASES. WILL SEE SCT DECKS BELOW
6000 THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR EARLY
SATURDAY FROM 09-14Z.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
356 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>066-072>074-220900-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
356 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE
PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ALONG WITH PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE. ANY
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY BY SUNSET WHEN THEY ARE MAINLY LOCATED
IN EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ018-019-025>039-220900-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
356 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ALONG
WITH DIME SIZE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO TWO INCHES AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH REGION
WHERE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR PERSISTS. ANY STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
RAPIDLY BEFORE SUNSET AS THEY DEPART EASTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

40

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