Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
121 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..SUPERCELL SATURDAY WITH TORNADOES SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...DRY LINE ADVANCING ACROSS WRN MS AND RISK FOR ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELLS SHIFTING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME.
A LONG TRACKER DAMAGING CELL MOVING INTO ATTALA COUNTY HEADING ENE
WHILE RISK ENDING ALONG A GRENADA TO VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ LINE WWD.
RISK FOR MORE SEVERE SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
IN ERN MS AND HAVE REVAMPED ALL HAZARDS TO PUSH HIGHER RISKS EWD FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL BE UPDATING PRODUCTS ABOUT EVERY HOUR OR
SO TO CLEAR OUT COUNTIES WEST OF THE MAIN LINE AS DRIER AIR SPILLING
MORE RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION ALONG THE MS RIVER. HOPE TO HAVE THE WW
ENDED BY AROUND 6 PM IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO HOLD UP./40/

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS BCMG MOSTLY VFR FROM W TO E...XCPT INVOF THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE MVFR/OCCNSL IFR CONDS PSBL. SCATTERED SEVERE TS COVERAGE XPCTD
TO CONTINUE IN ERN MS OF THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING XPCTD FROM W
TO E THIS AFTN AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. S WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THRU THE DAY AS THE PRES GRAD REMAINS TIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SW-W AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH A CONTINUATION OF
GUSTY WINDS XPCTD. /BK/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LARGE
NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR
CWA UNTIL MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY
AND BRING NO LESS THAN THREE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ACROSS OUR CWA
BEFORE THURSDAY AS WELL. SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL. THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL HELP DROP THE WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA
MONDAY. THE GFS WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT PLACED LIGHT QPF OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AND WL CUT POPS THEN. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND HELP SUPPORT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z
GFS...SREF AND ECMWF SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT. WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT
THE POPS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT. YET A THIRD SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO OUR REGION AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WL AGAIN CUT THE GFS GUIDANCE POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA
THURSDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLOWER TO SHIFT
EAST. DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER LARGE CLOSED LOW
NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS
RAIN BACK INTO OUR CWA FASTER THAN THE GFS FRIDAY BUT IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT WITH SUCH TIMING DIFFERENCES
WL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  56  79  55 /  78  14   7  10
MERIDIAN      81  57  82  55 / 100  32   7  11
VICKSBURG     79  56  79  54 /  45  10   7  10
HATTIESBURG   81  58  84  56 /  84  23   7   8
NATCHEZ       80  56  79  55 /  42   6   7   8
GREENVILLE    75  59  78  54 /  44  13   8  13
GREENWOOD     76  57  78  54 /  70  15   9  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-
     036>039-042.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ025>033-
     036>039-042>046-048>052.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1015 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE EXISTS A HIGH RISK OF
TORNADOES...SOME STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY STORM TO PRODUCE GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SOME EXCEEDING 75 MPH.

SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH SOME BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
AFTER 3 PM...THE PRIMARY RISK WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. ALL STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI BY 8 PM OR SO.

THERE ALSO EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS RISK EXISTS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A RAYVILLE
TO YAZOO CITY TO MACON LINE. THIS AREA RECEIVED POCKETS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GET ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS.

AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH AND BE WINDY AT 20 TO 30 MPH. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WILL
SEE THE STRONGER WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
141 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     TORNADO          4 NW TALLULAH           32.45N 91.24W
04/24/2010                   MADISON            LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BEAR LAKE COMMUNITY, 10 TO 15 HOMES DESTROYED. ULTRA HIGH
            VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION TOWN DOWN.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
148 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TORNADO          1 SW FRENCH CAMP        33.28N 89.41W
04/24/2010                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND SOME STRUCTURES DAMAGED ALONG THE
            NATCHEZ TRACE AND ATTALA ROAD 3122.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
149 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     TORNADO          4 NW TALLULAH           32.45N 91.24W
04/24/2010                   MADISON            LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BEAR LAKE COMMUNITY, 10 TO 15 HOMES DESTROYED. ULTRA HIGH
            VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION TOWER DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TORNADO          CHESTER                 33.36N 89.24W
04/24/2010                   CHOCTAW            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND TIN ROOF OFF HOME IN CHESTER
            COMMUNITY

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
205 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

MSZ036-037-241950-
HOLMES MS-ATTALA MS-
205 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF MCADAMS AT 205 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN ATTALA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BK