River Flood Warning 20, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
729 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS MOVING EAST. THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR SBN AND FWA
BY 02Z. KEPT A TEMPO GROUP AT FWA UNTIL 02Z FOR SOME LINGERING
STORMS. OTHERWISE...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT ALSO FOR FLOODING. SOME TRAINING OF STORMS
ON THE LATEST RADAR SCANS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...
SO GIVEN REPORTS OF SOME FLOODING IN ELKHART AND RADAR/SFC REPORTS
OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN OVER 1000
J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE STORMS HAVE YET TO OCCUR. ONGOING
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
HARDER FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE OVER WEST AREAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...GIVEN CELL MERGERS ON RADAR AND SOME EARLIER
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE IN ELKHART AND THREE RIVERS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER NE IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AS A LARGE TROF DIGS DOWNSTREAM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED SOME
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN UPPER AIR PROFILES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LITTLE CHNG TO ONGOING CONSISTENT AND WARM
LONG TERM PD. 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITES TRENDING TOWARD GENERAL
CONSENSUS...WITH HIR CONFIDENCE FOR WARM/DRY FCST ESPCLY DYS3-6.

ERN CONSENSUS REX BLOCK AT START OF LONG TERM WITH INCRSGLY STRONG
UPSTREAM MIDLVL RIDGING FM SRN MS RVR VLY INTO CNTL GRTLKS...WITH
MID LVL ANTICYCLONE REACHING CRESCENDO ACRS ERN/CTNL GRTLKS BY 00
UTC WED. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE TO ANCHOR FM SRN MO INTO WRN GRTLKS
BY SUN AFTN AS WRN CONUS TROF SHARPENS COURTESY FUJIWHARA BTWN
ALB/SASK WAVE AND STRONGLY TROP FOLDED ENERGY NOW ONTO WA/OR COAST.
STRONG DOWNSTERAM RIDGE BLOCK TO HOLD ERLY/MIDWEEK CONVECTION WELL
WEST OF CWA...FOCUSED IN HIR 1000-859MB THETA-E STREAM. SOME CONCERN
FOR FRONTAL SYSTEM LAYING OUT E-W ACRS NRN GRTLKS DY6-7 TIMEFRAME AS
IT BEGINS TO SAG SWD...POTNLY SPARKING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. HOWEVER
AS FURTHER UPSTREAM/INTERNATIONAL DATELINE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
REDIG WRN TROF DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST BY END OF FCST PD...HAVE SOME
RESERVATIONS ON FRONTS IMPACT WRT SENSIBLE WEATHER AS WARM MIDLVL
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HAVE TIME TO REACH FULL MATURATION AND WITH
BEST SFC FNTL CONVERGENCE AND MIDLVL COLD POOL VERY WELL COULD
REMAIN ACRS CAN INTO NEW ENGLAND/LOWR GRTLKS FOR DY7...AND WL KEEP
ENTIRE EXTND WARM/DRY FOR NOW AND AWAIT A MORE COHERENT PRECIP
SIGNAL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...ARNOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
320 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

INZ003>009-012-014-016>018-025>027-033-034-LMZ043-046-MIZ077>081-
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-220730-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
MARSHALL-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-BLACKFORD-
JAY-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-
BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-
VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
320 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010 /220 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS
AND RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. MINOR FLOODING OF A FEW
RIVER POINTS IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ013-015-020-022>024-032-220730-
PULASKI-FULTON IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...ROCHESTER...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...MARION
320 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREATS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH PONDING
OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
MINOR FLOODING OF A FEW RIVER POINTS IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

ARNOTT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
559 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HUDSON                  41.53N  85.08W
05/21/2010  M2.50 INCH       STEUBEN            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL FROM 345PM TO 550PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000552

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
602 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GEORGETOWN              41.23N  84.87W
05/21/2010                   ALLEN              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR GEORGETOWN SQUARE RISING
            VERY QUICKLY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PAST 30 MINUTES

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000553

SAW