Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
507 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.UPDATE...
A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION HAS BEEN ADDED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE NEAR MOLINE WITH WARM AND HUMID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ARE SETTING THE STAGE
FOR AN AFTERNOON AND AN EVENING ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
MORNING CLOUD HAS SLOWED WARMING BUT EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY REACHING MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS LOW TO MID 70S
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE FUEL WHILE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HELPS
SPIN UP SUPERCELLS.

&&

.21Z MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
SURFACE MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A NWD
MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A MESOLOW OVER SRN IL /NEAR
EFFINGHAM/ EWD INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY INDIANA THEN INTO NRN JACKSON
COUNTY /NEAR SEYMOUR/. A FEW TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AHEAD OF THE SVR TSTM ALONG THE
GREENE/SULLIVAN/CLAY COUNTY BORDER AREA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATED A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH
SBCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS WAS
LESS UNSTABLE... BUT STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG/.  FURTHER WEST...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES ACCELERATION
OF DVLPG CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN IL...WITH RECENT STORM MOTIONS
40-45 KTS. PRESSURE RISES WERE BEHIND THIS LINE AND VWP DATA FROM
ST. LOIUS INDICATED AROUND 40KTS AT 10000FT BEHIND THIS LINE. THIS
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NE AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE FALLS ANALYZED ALONG THE IL/INDIANA BORDER. CURRENT TSTM
MOTIONS AND ANTICIPATED SLIGHT ACCELERATIONS DUE TO CELL/LINE
MERGERS WOULD TAKE THE THREAT OF SVR WIND INTO THE INDY METRO AREA
BEGINNING AROUND 7PM...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASING MARKEDLY BY
8PM. THE TORNADO THREAT /EMBD OR WITH CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS
SLOWLY NWD INTO MONROE....BROWN AND BARTHOLOMEW COUNTIES BY 7PM.

&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING/...
LOW STRATUS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURE RISES WERE BEING TEMPERED A BIT BY THE
CLOUDS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE 70S AT 15Z.

FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION LATER TODAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAPID
REFRESH/RUC COMBO WITH RESPECT TO MAIN FEATURES FOR THE NEAR TERM.

ALL SIGNS ARE CERTAINLY POINTING TO MOTHER NATURE PROVIDING A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS HERE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. DO ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO EVOLVE AT A SLOWER PACE THIS
AFTERNOON THAN IT DID ON MONDAY AND HAVE A FEW REASONS FOR THIS
THINKING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE HAMPERING HEATING AND MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING THAT REGION IS FIGHTING INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE. CLOSER ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA
ALSO PROVIDING SOME INTERESTING CLUES AS TO HOW THINGS MAY EVOLVE
LATER ON. LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT ABOVE
THE INVERSION. FURTHERMORE...SOUNDINGS SHOWING A BROADER AREA OF
DRYING AND POSSIBLY A HINT OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS.
INITIALLY...THIS IS KEEPING IT QUIET OVER THE REGION.

HOWEVER...AS HEATING COMMENCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
TEMPERATURES WARM...INHIBITION WILL BE SLOWLY EATEN AWAY WITH
INCREASING CAPES ABOVE THE INVERSION EVENTUALLY BEING REALIZED
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES WILL LIKELY PLATEAU NEAR
3000-4000 J/KG ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BOUNDARIES WILL THEN COME INTO PLAY AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...INCLUDING THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... AND WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE INFLUENCING THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME...SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR IN THE MID 70S TO RETURN.

INITIAL COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL IMPACT MANY OF OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANTICIPATE THE MAIN
CONVECTION TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG SHORT
WAVE AXIS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS BY MID
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST AND INTENSIFYING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME AFTER 22-23Z. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS ONCE
AGAIN IN PLACE AND IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES
INTO BOWING SEGMENTS OR POTENTIALLY EVEN A DERECHO THIS EVENING.
ALSO FEEL A SLIGHTLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN HERE WOULD BE IF SUPERCELLS CAN GET
ORGANIZED WITHIN A WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING REMAIN A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. RAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH NOW 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVING FALLEN ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SINCE FRIDAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING HIGH AND GROUND IS WATERLOGGED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RECOVERING
TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THEREFORE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...FEW CHANGES AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN CLIMB FROM THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY/...ONCE SEVERE
CONVECTION EXITS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDS AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.
ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THUS CONFIDENCE PRETTY HIGH THAT
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX
AND MIN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO MID 60S OR LOWER.
WILL USE A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCES FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS. A SLIGHT
LEAN TOWARDS MINS ABOVE GUIDANCES GIVEN SATURATED GROUND LIKELY
LEADING TO DEWPOINTS HIGHER THAN MODELS SUGGEST AND VERY HEAVY
DEWS FOR COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FORECAST ISSUE HERE IS
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL.
ALL MODELS AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING NORTHWEST
PACIFIC TROUGH SOUTHEAST INTO ROCKIES THEN LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN FURTHER BUILDING OF UPPER
RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES REGION AND RETURN OF SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEWPOINTS BACK TOWARDS 70. RESULTING HEAT
INDICES IN MID TO UPPER 90S...JUST BELOW HEAT CRITERIA. AS FOR
THUNDER THREAT...ALL MODELS DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH WEAK IMPULSES FLATTENING FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY.
RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS IT APPEARS SURFACE BOUNDARY TO BE FURTHER
NORTH AND GREATER THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD OR MAINTAIN CHANCE THREAT CURRENTLY IN
FORECAST. HAVE ADDED THREAT INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF MODELS
DROPPING THAT BOUNDARY CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST AREA AND THIS AGREES
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND HPC. NOT CERTAIN CURRENT DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL HOLD OUT AS WEAK WAVES IN ZONAL FLOW
IN BASE OF WESTERLIES MAY STILL BE A THREAT. LATER FORECASTS MAY
ADJUST THIS.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAFS/...
AS LOWER CLOUDS MIX OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS LINE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT KHUF AND KLAF WITHIN THE FIRST
TWO HOURS OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
SHOULD THIS LINE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON...IT
MAY IMPACT KBMG AND KIND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON MIGRATING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER
22Z. AT THIS POINT...TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC TIMING OF
IMPACTS. HOWEVER...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS WILL BE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. CONCERNED ABOUT
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STORMS...SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO WILL SEE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE STORMS WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. WILL USE AMENDMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT SPECIFIC IMPACTS AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

IN WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION ESTABLISHES. FOG
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MIDDAY AS LOW LEVEL MIXING ESTABLISHES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BACK TO SOUTHERLY OR
EVEN SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE IN. WINDS WILL THEN
VEER TO NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...RYAN
MESOSCALE...CROSBIE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-161745-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING RAINS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND LINE OF STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREA
RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

TUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
448 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             4 W DUGGER              39.07N 87.33W
06/15/2010  E0.75 INCH       SULLIVAN           IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

AHOMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
450 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             DUGGER                  39.07N 87.26W
06/15/2010  E1.00 INCH       SULLIVAN           IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
531 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LINTON                  39.04N 87.16W
06/15/2010                   GREENE             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GREENE COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTING FUNNEL CLOUD NORTHEAST OF
            LINTON.

&&

AHOMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
549 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 E BLOOMFIELD          39.03N 86.90W
06/15/2010                   GREENE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL JUST NORTH OF SPOTTERS LOCATION...HAS BEEN PRESENT
            FOR AT LEAST 5 MINUTES.

&&

AHOMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
551 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             1 N SMITHVILLE          39.09N 86.51W
06/15/2010  E0.50 INCH       MONROE             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 37 AND OLD HIGHWAY
            37 IN THE CLEAR CREEK NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

AHOMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
553 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             1 N SMITHVILLE          39.09N 86.51W
06/15/2010  E1.75 INCH       MONROE             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL FELL AT LAKEVIEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

&&

AHOMANN