Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THIS PATTERN WILL END BY MID WEEK WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES FINALLY SHIFTS AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HAVE UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A POTENT LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL ALSO MENTION DAMAGING WINDS EARLY...AND HEAVY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN THE VERY WARM AND
VERY HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS CAPE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOARS INTO THE 2K-3K RANGE. ACCOMPANIED WITH
LI/S OF -6 TO -7 CAN SEE NO REASON WHY ANOTHER ROUND OF PERSISTENCE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR. AGAIN...PWATS REMAINS VERY HIGH
NEAR 2 INCHES...THUS ANY STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS.

WILL TRY TO ADD SOME TIMING TO THE CONVECTION AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY...FOCUSING CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AGAIN WITH A VARIABLE CLOUDY SKY ON TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD EASILY REACH THEIR PERSISTENT LEVELS IN THE UPPER 80S. MAVMOS
HANDLES THIS WELL AND WILL STICK CLOSE.

COLD FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY SATURATED
DURING THE EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH
LIKELY POPS...BUT ATTEMPT TO TAPER THINGS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
WILL KEEP SOME POPS AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
LINGERING FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW BACKSIDE SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HINT AT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE RGN FOR
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH VERY WARM
H7 EXCEEDING 10C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY...BUT VERY WARM
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE FORCING AND THE WARM
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE
REINSTATED.

MODELS THEN HINTING AT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. IF
THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE
TO START THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/00Z TAFS/

TIMED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDER BEST AS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
SITES. SHOULD BE IMPACTING IND/BMG NEAR THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND
A CB MENTION IS CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

EXTREMELY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...AND
HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR/HIGH END IFR FOG.

YET ANOTHER DAY TOMORROW W/ THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...AND A VCTS/CB
MENTION WILL COVER IT FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ036-037-039-
043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/RYAN
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...NIELD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-152200-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
555 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREA RIVERS.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

NIELD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
838 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     TSTM WND GST     SEYMOUR                 38.96N 85.89W
06/14/2010  E50 MPH          JACKSON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN ALSO. WINDS POSSIBLY HIGHER.

&&

HEROLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
840 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     FREETOWN                38.97N 86.13W
06/14/2010  E50 MPH          JACKSON            IN   PUBLIC

&&

HEROLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
843 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S ELLETTSVILLE        39.19N 86.62W
06/14/2010                   MONROE             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TWO LARGE TREES DOWNED.

&&

JKWIATKO