Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
710 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 060000Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH HAVE BEEN MAINLY AFFECTING THE
KHUF/KBMG/KIND TERMINALS. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
THAT IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
INDICATING CAPPING IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AS MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM...SO DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT. CONVECTION
MAY LINGER TIL SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME IN THE KIND AREA...BUT
THINK THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION IS ABOUT OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS.

MODELS INDICATE A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AROUND 025
LATER TONIGHT...SO THINK LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AFTER
ABOUT 060300Z AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. MODEL DATA SUGGEST
INVERSION TOP AROUND 018. WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
061200Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WERE PARTLY
CLOUDY...WITH A STEADY WEST/SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND TEMPS IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80...DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
MID 60S SOUTH...AND 88D MOSAICS SHOWING RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

FORECAST FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND TEMPS/WINDS
TOMORROW.

ENVIRONMENT APPEARS PRIMED FOR A DECENT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
THREAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS GOOD...AND RISK
MAY EXTEND FURTHER EAST WITH TIME...BEFORE SUNSET ALLOWS
STABILIZATION AND DEGRADATION OF SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT...THREAT WILL
END...W/ ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY CAPPED...AND IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO A VERY WINDY DAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTS INTO THE MID 30KT RANGE EASILY...W/ SOME 40KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THIS FLIRTS W/ WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WILL
NEED CLOSE MONITORING AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

GFS APPEARS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE W/ APPROACH OF
NEXT SYSTEM ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET W/ A VERY
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT...BUT
MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR DEPENDING ON ARRIVAL TIME OF SYSTEM AND
CLOUDINESS IN ADVANCE.

ON TEMPS...GUIDANCE IS MUCH TOO COOL ON HIGHS TOMORROW AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY...GIVEN A STRONGLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT...850
TEMP EXPECTATIONS...AND UPSTREAM TEMPS. HAVE RAISED MINS A BIT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL W/ DEWPOINTS STAYING UP AND SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.

&&

.LONG TERM.../12Z THURSDAY THROUGH DAY 7/

EXTENDED MODEL CONSISTENCY STILL LEAVES SOMETHING TO BE
DESIRED...BUT IS VASTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. NOW
APPEARS LIKELY THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND ALLOW A RECOVERY OF TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL...IF NOT
QUITE AS FAR ABOVE NORMAL AS RECENT DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING
ANOTHER FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. WENT NEAR THE HIGH
END OF ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS AND NUMEROUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
141 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

INZ031-037>042-046>049-054>057-062>065-070>072-061000-
HOWARD-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HENDRICKS-
MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
141 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AT TIMES WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>030-035-036-043>045-051>053-060-061-067>069-061000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-VERMILLION-
PARKE-PUTNAM-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
141 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AT TIMES WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

RYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
648 PM EDT MON APR 05 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             GOSPORT                 39.35N 86.67W
04/05/2010  E1.75 INCH       OWEN               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BROKE WINDSHIELD OF SPOTTER/S CAR

&&

HEROLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
652 PM EDT MON APR 05 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               39.62N 86.11W
04/05/2010  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            1 MILE WEST OF ARPT

&&

HEROLD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>