Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
409 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WERE PARTLY
CLOUDY...WITH A STEADY WEST/SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND TEMPS IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80...DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
MID 60S SOUTH...AND 88D MOSAICS SHOWING RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

FORECAST FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND TEMPS/WINDS
TOMORROW.

ENVIRONMENT APPEARS PRIMED FOR A DECENT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
THREAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS GOOD...AND RISK
MAY EXTEND FURTHER EAST WITH TIME...BEFORE SUNSET ALLOWS
STABILIZATION AND DEGRADATION OF SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT...THREAT WILL
END...W/ ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY CAPPED...AND IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO A VERY WINDY DAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTS INTO THE MID 30KT RANGE EASILY...W/ SOME 40KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THIS FLIRTS W/ WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WILL
NEED CLOSE MONITORING AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN.

GFS APPEARS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE W/ APPROACH OF
NEXT SYSTEM ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET W/ A VERY
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT...BUT
MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR DEPENDING ON ARRIVAL TIME OF SYSTEM AND
CLOUDINESS IN ADVANCE.

ON TEMPS...GUIDANCE IS MUCH TOO COOL ON HIGHS TOMORROW AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY...GIVEN A STRONGLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT...850
TEMP EXPECTATIONS...AND UPSTREAM TEMPS. HAVE RAISED MINS A BIT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WELL W/ DEWPOINTS STAYING UP AND SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.

&&

.LONG TERM.../12Z THURSDAY THROUGH DAY 7/

EXTENDED MODEL CONSISTENCY STILL LEAVES SOMETHING TO BE
DESIRED...BUT IS VASTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. NOW
APPEARS LIKELY THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND ALLOW A RECOVERY OF TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL...IF NOT
QUITE AS FAR ABOVE NORMAL AS RECENT DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING
ANOTHER FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. WENT NEAR THE HIGH
END OF ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS AND NUMEROUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 05/18Z TAFS.
WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...JUST OFF
TO THE SOUTH OF KBMG. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION APPEAR TO BE IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST INDICATE A CB MENTION AT ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LET LATER
SHIFTS UPDATE AS NECESSARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT
BEFORE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE LATE. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY EARLY
TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT KLAF TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROMOTE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...RYAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
141 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

INZ031-037>042-046>049-054>057-062>065-070>072-061000-
HOWARD-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HENDRICKS-
MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
141 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AT TIMES WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>030-035-036-043>045-051>053-060-061-067>069-061000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-VERMILLION-
PARKE-PUTNAM-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
141 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AT TIMES WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

RYAN