River Flood Warning 147, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
616 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOT TEMPS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR POPUP
CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL
INDIANA. CONVECTION HAS BASICALLY LINED OUT WITH EMBEDDED CELLS
EXHIBITING SOME SUPERCELLULAR BEHAVIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GFS/NAM/EURO ARE ALL SHOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SET UP FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MICH TODAY...BUT SB CAPES IN
EXCESS OF 4K AND LI/S AS LOW AS -11 WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR POPUP
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL INDIANA. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...SO WENT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN TOMORROW AS CENTRAL INDIANA FALLS
IN A WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PATTERN WILL CHANGE TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING A HALT TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPS...MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS...SO WENT WITH A BLEND
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TRENDED ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. THURSDAY...STUCK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS DROPPING A BIT INTO THE UPPER 80S IN WAKE OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONT. AS FAR AS LOWS...STUCK WITH GUIDANCE
AND KEPT THEM IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SIGNAL HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT IN LONGER RANGE MODELS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
END OF THE WEEK THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
SHUTTLES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM
THE HEAT ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER WARMUP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

BACKED OFF HPC/MEX GUIDANCE CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS AGAIN IT
APPEARS THAT GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WET CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
HELP TO MODERATE HEATING SOMEWHAT.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SAGS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../221200 TAF ISSUANCE/...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MID
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
ONCE AGAIN BECOMING HIGHLY UNSTABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
BOUNDARY LIFTING ONLY SLOWLY NORTH...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY CB MENTION
AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH LATER SHIFTS EMPLOYING MORE DETAILS AS
THE PATTERN EVOLVES. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR INZ051>053-060>062-067>070.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....NIELD/TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-230815-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE.

HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...MAINLY SOUTH OF 70.

FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREA RIVERS.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY TIME
FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THOUGH LATE NIGHT STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WILL EXIST...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND HEAT INDICES FROM 95
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
749 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S GREENWOOD           39.60N 86.11W
06/22/2010  M0.25 INCH       JOHNSON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMOUNT IN 5 MINUTES. RAIN RATE 4 INCH PER HOUR REALTIME.

&&

HEROLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
822 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE BROWNSBURG        39.81N 86.38W
06/22/2010  M4.61 INCH       HENDRICKS          IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMOUNT BETWEEN 1130 PM JUNE 21ST AND 7 AM TODAY.

&&

HEROLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
825 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AVON                    39.76N 86.38W
06/22/2010                   HENDRICKS          IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WHITE LICK CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS. MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR
            600 EAST AND 100 NORTH BEING EVACUATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
            DAMN BREAK.

&&

MKOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
830 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AVON                    39.76N 86.38W
06/22/2010                   HENDRICKS          IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WHITE LICK CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS. MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR
            600 EAST AND 100 NORTH BEING EVACUATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
            DAM BREAK.

&&

MKOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
856 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SHERIDAN                40.13N 86.22W
06/22/2010  M2.45 INCH       HAMILTON           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMOUNT FROM 7 AM JUNE 21ST TO 7 AM JUNE 22ND.

&&

HEROLD

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