Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Indianapolis, IN

223 
WGUS73 KIND 220450
FFSIND

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

INC171-220630-
/O.CON.KIND.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-100622T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN-
1250 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 230
AM EDT/130 AM CDT/...

AT 1248 AM EDT/1148 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE 
LAST 12 HOURS. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WILLIAMSPORT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 8754 4049 8753 4048 8710 4038 8710
      4033 8724 4024 8733 4020 8743 4018 8744
      4014 8744 4014 8749 4016 8749 4017 8754

$$

SMF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...A COMBINATION WARM
FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE FROM EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THROUGH SOUTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND BACK INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SKIES HAD GENERALLY CLEARED IN
THE WAKE OF A MORNING MCS...ALLOWING AIRMASS RECOVERY TO BEGIN.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

NAM APPEARS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT WEATHER SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER
THAN GFS AND OTHER MODELS...AND HAVE LEANED TO IT FOR DETAILS
OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS RECOVERY HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST AS WARM
FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW HAS RETREATED BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...AND SUNSHINE HAS RESUMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS LAID OUT RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A
MLCAPE RANGE FROM 500 J/KG NORTHEAST...UP TO 4000 J/KG IN THE
SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPING CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY RIDE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE GUN ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

HAVE GONE CLOSER TO NAM POPS WITH LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE CWA IN
THE EVENING...TAPERING DOWN SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT AS
REDEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MCS LATER IS SOMEWHAT LESS CERTAIN.

WARM MET TEMPS LOOK BEST W/ WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIP
PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT RADIATIVE COOLING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE ON FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HEAT.

RIDGE STRENGTHENS/BUILDS NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD DEFLECT THE PREFERRED TRACK FOR
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH. THUS...CHANCE POPS TAPERING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LOOK BEST. 700 TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW
AND REMAIN WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD PUT US ON THE
PERIPHERY OF ANY POP UP CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
BOUNDARIES LAID OUT BY MCS ACTIVITY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

ON TEMPS...MET GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH BETTER COMPARED TO EXPECTED 850
TEMP PROGRESSION. MAV ALSO SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH VERY WET GROUND HOLDING DOWN DIURNAL HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS
STILL LEADS TO TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

HEAT INDICES TOMORROW SHOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...AND WILL
GO AHEAD WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN THIS AREA...AS IT APPEARS LESS
LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW AS OCCURRED TODAY...SEVERELY IMPACTING MORNING DIURNAL
WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SIGNAL HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT IN LONGER RANGE MODELS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
SHUTTLES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD MODERATE MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WARMUP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

BACKED OFF HPC/MEX GUIDANCE CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...AS AGAIN IT
APPEARS THAT GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WET CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
HELP TO MODERATE HEATING SOMEWHAT.

PRECIP CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SAGS
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../220000Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION PRESENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA. 211800Z SOUNDING FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INDICATES A WEAK TO MODERATE CAP...SO EXPECTING
CONVECTION IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED
THROUGH SUNSET.

BETTER THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LATER TONIGHT
AS UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVES
INTO THE AREA COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET.
APPEARS HIGHEST THREAT 220400Z-220900Z...BUT SOME CONVECTIVE
THREAT MAY LINGER BEYOND 221200Z IN THE MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES GENERALLY AROUND 040.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES WITH CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES...OR WINDS THROUGH 221200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ051>053-
060>062-067>070.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1221 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-221630-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1221 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THREATS WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS.

HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...MAINLY SOUTH OF 70.

FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREA RIVERS.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY TIME
FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THOUGH LATE NIGHT STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WILL EXIST...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND HEAT INDICES FROM 95
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

NIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
520 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

INZ061-062-212215-
GREENE-MONROE-
520 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

AT 517 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLOOMFIELD...OR 17 MILES WEST OF
BLOOMINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HARRODSBURG AND WHITEHALL AROUND 535 PM EDT...
  SMITHVILLE AND INDIANA UNIVERSITY AROUND 540 PM EDT...

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

SMF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 N BEDFORD             38.96N 86.49W
06/21/2010                   LAWRENCE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 NE BEDFORD            38.90N 86.44W
06/21/2010                   LAWRENCE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD HALFWAY TO THE GROUND...SEEN FROM HWY 58.

&&

MRD