Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 220 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH CONVECTION
COVERAGE AND TIMING ALONG WITH AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
STORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS ONCE AGAIN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION AND EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF STORMS LATER
TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST.
LOOKS AS IF THE GFS MAY HAVE A MORE REALISTIC LOOK TO THE QPF AXIS
LATE TNT AFFECTING AREAS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. MODELS MAY BE
SHIFTING THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY TOO FAR NORTH LATER
TNT WITH THE BNDRY CLOSE TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH AND
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT AT THIS POINT...THE I-74 CORRIDOR CAN
TAKE SOME RAINFALL AS IT HAS MISSED OUT ON THE BULK OF THE RAIN
THIS AFTN. AT THIS POINT...WL HOLD OFF ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AND
UPDATE THE ESF PRODUCT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT TONIGHT.

SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACRS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A TEMPORARY
BREAK IN THE STORMS INTO THE AFTN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
WAVE TO SHIFT ESE INTO THE MIDWEST RENEWING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT LATER IN THE DAY...PROBABLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SOUTHWARD SHIFTING SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT.
NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT (EITHER SYNOPTIC OR
MESOSCALE) SO WL CONTINUE TO HOLD WITH OUR CURRENT 40 TO 50 POPS
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING SLOWLY NWD AS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND TAKE THE HIGHER POPS NORTH AS WELL LATER WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKING ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK
WILL PUSH EAST ACRS THE UPPER LAKES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT AND CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT STILL IN DOUBT WITH THE ECMWF A
BIT SLOWER IN BRINGING THE FRONT SE INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST THE START
OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO ACTUALLY PASS THROUGH
OUR FORECAST AREA. WL START TO TAKE PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
GRIDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST FOR LATE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF INDICATES BOUNDARY TO START SHIFTING NORTH
ACRS THE AREA ON MONDAY...A BIT DIFFERENT SCENARIO THEN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED...SO WL KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SMITH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1238 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010
OVERALL FORECAST A BIT OF A PROBLEM. MANY SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO
THE REGION IN AN INCREDIBLY WARM AND MOIST SFC AIRMASS. LINE OF TS
MOVING THROUGH SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PRECIP SHIELD POINTS NORTH AND TRAILING THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. VCTS THROUGH PIA BMI AND CMI FOR NOW...TIMING OUT THE
TS FOR TEMPO GROUPS IN SPI AND DEC. MAIN ISSUE IS THE NEXT COUPLE
OF WAVES...MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...NOR THE WAVE TRAIN BACK INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
PUTTING VCTS IN THE TAFS FROM 07-09Z ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVE WEATHER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
LOOK OF THINGS.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

ILZ027>031-036>038-041-201115-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR...ALONG WITH LONGER TERM FLOODING OF
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ILZ040-047-049-050-201115-
CASS-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE
FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT BEARDSTOWN
UNTIL THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT.

ILZ042-043-048-051>053-061-066>068-071>073-201115-
CHRISTIAN-CLAY-CRAWFORD-DE WITT-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MENARD-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT.

ILZ044>046-054>057-062-063-201115-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
VERMILION-
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
233 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N MATTOON             39.52N 88.37W
07/19/2010                   COLES              IL   MESONET

            1.5 FOOT DIAMETER HEALTHY TREE SNAPPED ACROSS 1000 NORTH.
            SWOP REPORT.

&&

BRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     HAIL             CHARLESTON              39.48N 88.18W
07/19/2010  M1.50 INCH       COLES              IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT.

0236 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHARLESTON              39.48N 88.18W
07/19/2010  E60 MPH          COLES              IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT.

0236 PM     TSTM WND GST     MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
07/19/2010  M62 MPH          COLES              IL   ASOS

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE ALLENVILLE         39.54N 88.51W
07/19/2010                   MOULTRIE           IL   MESONET

            AT 121 AND 1675 EAST. POWER LINES WERE BLOWN OVER AT NEAR
            45 DEGREE ANGLE. SWOP REPORT.

&&

BRO