Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1034 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1031 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010
MCS HOLDING TOGETHER FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DIVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL EVEN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK SHEAR.  UPDATED THE GRIDS EARLIER FOR
THE PRECIP TRENDS...AND TO KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE MAX
TEMPS... PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST. WILL BE SENDING OUT
ZONES MOMENTARILY.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

WK CDFNT PASSED THRU THE TAF SITES OVRNGT AND HAS BROUGHT SLGTLY LWR
DWPTS INTO THE AREA. SOME LINGERING RESIDUAL MSTR WL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT SPI/CMI AND PSBLY DEC TIL ABT 15Z. THIS FOG
IS QUITE SHALLOW AND TRANSITORY AS EVIDENCED BY 3/4SM 1052Z AND 10SM
11Z AT SPI. RUC MDL FCST SNDGS SHOW LTL MSTR AFT THE LOW STUFF MIXES
THRU EXCEPT AT AC LVL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AC/ACCAS THAT IS
EXPECTED AS REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT IA ELEVATED CONVECTION WKNS AND
MOVES EWD. WAA TSTMS ARE FCST TO WKN LTR THIS MORNG AS THE NOCT LLJ
DCRSS AND RELOADS FURTHER W. THEREFORE WL EXPCT ANY CNVCTN THIS AFTN
TO BE ISOLD AND WL HANDLE WITH VCTS. MEANWHILE...NEW MCS WL LKLY
DVLP LT THIS AFTN/TNGT OVR SD/IA AND MOVE SEWD INTO CNTL IL AFT 06Z.
ALTHOUGH THE SVR THREAT WL BCM MORE ISOLD AS STORMS APCH THE IL
RVR...STG WNDS WL STILL BE PSBL. WL INDICATE A TEMPO FOR THUNDER
BEGINNING PIA 07Z TUE THEN TRENDING TWD 09Z FOR CMI.

04
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 233 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT BISECTING THE KILX
CWA...WITH OBS INDICATING IT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF I-55. BEHIND
THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS TRICKLED INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
ALOFT...RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE FAST ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
QUIET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY...AS A WEAK BUBBLE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND FRONT GETS SUPPRESSED TO ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF I-70. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT CAP IN PLACE DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 850MB...SO THINK CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARBY. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING WILL TRACK E/SE
TODAY...TRIGGERING A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO PUSH E/SE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A VERY UNSTABLE INFLOW AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS...
REACHING IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z 19 JUL MODELS ARE ALL IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORMS
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFS WHICH HAS A MORE EASTERLY TRAJECTORY INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
SINCE GFS HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE POORLY RECENTLY...HAVE REJECTED
ITS SOLUTION IN FAVOR OF THE NAM12.

WITH 45-50KT LLJ DEVELOPING FROM THE PLAINS E/NE INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS BY 06Z...CONVECTION WILL REMAIN QUITE ROBUST AS IT CROSSES
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING. FAVORABLE
INFLOW AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40...SUGGEST A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A GOOD BET...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES AND 850MB THETA-E AXIS
SETS UP FROM TEXAS N/NE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
ACCORDINGLY AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH
OF A SPRINGFIELD TO MATTOON LINE.

OVERNIGHT MCS WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT BEHIND RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WITH UPPER PATTERN REMAINING UNCHANGED...THINK
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. HAVE
THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO 40 ACROSS THE BOARD FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
IN THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED...OTHER THAN TO
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE
STRUGGLES TO BUILD NORTHWARD. PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DUE TO CONVECTION. THINK
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST...AND HOTTEST...DAY OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT APPROACH BY SATURDAY.

BARNES

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

ILZ027>031-036>038-041-201115-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR...ALONG WITH LONGER TERM FLOODING OF
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ILZ040-047-049-050-201115-
CASS-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE
FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HAVANA WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT BEARDSTOWN
UNTIL THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT.

ILZ042-043-048-051>053-061-066>068-071>073-201115-
CHRISTIAN-CLAY-CRAWFORD-DE WITT-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MENARD-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT.

ILZ044>046-054>057-062-063-201115-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
VERMILION-
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IOWA AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1036 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

ILZ036-040-041-047-048-050-191630-
CASS-FULTON-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-
1036 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CASS...MASON...NORTHWESTERN
MORGAN...SCHUYLER...SOUTHERN FULTON AND WESTERN MENARD COUNTIES UNTIL
1130 AM CDT...

AT 1034 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BROWNING...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RUSHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BATH...
  CHANDLERVILLE...
  KILBOURNE...
  PETERSBURG...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...RAY...BLUFF CITY...SNICARTE...
NEWMANSVILLE...OAKFORD AND ATTERBERRY.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4029 9074 4028 9046 4044 9045 4037 8995
      4030 8964 4002 8981 3989 9005 3987 9040
      3989 9059 3991 9055 3998 9053 3998 9060
      4002 9062 4004 9069 4007 9068 4008 9071
      4010 9071 4010 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1536Z 288DEG 27KT 4017 9039

SHIMON

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