Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
624 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FORECAST CONCERN IS THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY AND WED.
ALSO ADDRESSING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN THREAT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
SOUTH OF PEORIA TO NEAR I-70 EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING ESE AT 40 MPH.
MSC OVER CENTRAL IN/IL AND ANOTHER MCS CENTERED ALONG THE IA/NE BORDER.

SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL IL
THROUGH WED NIGHT AS TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WED.
PER SPC...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE REGION. AN
EARLY DAY SEVERE STORMS/POSSIBLE MCS...OVER THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT...MAY BE SUSTAINED IN SOME FORM AND/OR SHOULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS/WARM SECTOR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD AGAIN BECOME
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE UNSTABLE...WITH MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS/SOME SUPERCELLS WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NW IL INTO FAR SOUTHERN IA TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY SHIFTING THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SE IL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
SUPPORTS VERY HEAVY RAINS...BUT DID NOT ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SINCE CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING.

EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY NORTHWARD TO ALONG I-72 AND LINCOLN
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100 TO 105F. WENT A LITTLE
COOLER ON HIGHS IN THE NORTH DUE TO HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
AND CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AGAIN TODAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WARMEST FROM I-72 SOUTH.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S IN SE IL BY LAWRENCEVILLE AND ROBINSON NEAR
THE WABASH RIVER.

MORE MCS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TONIGHT THOUGH SETTING UP FURTHER NORTH
FROM IA ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND HAVE LIKELY CHANCES FROM PEORIA
NORTH. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE SLOWER TREND WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SE
ACROSS IL WED NIGHT WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF CONVECTION NW IL
OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATER WED AFTERNOON AND ACROSS AREA WED
NIGHT...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INTO SE IL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WED
NIGHT. CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT.

HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN SE IL THU MAINLY IN THE
MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MOVING IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SE IL NEAR 90F
WHILE DEWPOINTS ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER IN THE 60S. MODELS SHOW
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1018 MB DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT
AND KEEPS CENTRAL IL DRY THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH HIGHS FRI BACK IN
THE UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO IL RETURNING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
STARTING SAT. COULD BE ISOLATED CONVECTION AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HUETTL

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION COVERAGE
AND TIMING THIS PERIOD. NEXT COMPLEX OF STORMS ACRS SE IOWA LOOKS
TO BE TRACKING ENE AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WL CATCH OUR
NRN TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER THAT COMPLEX MOVES THRU
LATE THIS MRNG...LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE ACTION UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTN OR THIS EVENING. THAT IS WHEN ADDL TSRA WILL PUSH ACRS PARTS
OF THE FCST AREA. CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING
AT ANY ONE OF OUR TAF SITES IS LOW...SO WL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS
TRENDS IN KEEPING VCTS AND A CB GROUP FOR ANYTHING BEYOND 6-9 HRS.
SFC WNDS WL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
AND BE MUCH STRONGER AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ042>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
532 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-231100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
532 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HENRY
THROUGH BEARDSTOWN THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE SPOON RIVER AS WELL...FOR A COUPLE
MORE DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ILZ042>057-061>063-231100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCOTT-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
532 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HENRY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BEARDSTOWN THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. FLOODING
IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE SANGAMON RIVER AT CHANDLERVILLE AND
MONTICELLO.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ILZ066>068-071>073-231100-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
532 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LITTLE
WABASH RIVER BY CLAY CITY AND THE EMBARRAS RIVER AT LAWRENCEVILLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
842 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FARMINGTON              40.72N 90.01W
06/22/2010                   FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1 FOOT OF WATER ON ROUTE 116 IN DOWNTOWN FARMINGTON.
            CURRENTLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S PHILADELPHIA        39.89N 90.12W
06/22/2010  M1.79 INCH       CASS               IL   MESONET

            OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. SWOP REPORT.

0155 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BEARDSTOWN              40.01N 90.43W
06/22/2010                   CASS               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREES UPROOTED. TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            ALL OVER TOWN. TWO BUILDINGS LOST THEIR ROOF. DAMAGE MOST
            CONCENTRATED ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF TOWN. FROM BEARDSTOWN
            POLICE DEPARTMENT.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
910 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S PANA                39.33N 89.08W
06/22/2010                   SHELBY             IL   MESONET

            1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER FLOWING OVER MANY ROADS.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
958 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE LINCOLN            40.14N 89.35W
06/22/2010  M1.88 INCH       LOGAN              IL   MESONET

            MEASURED IN 20 MINUTES

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1008 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LINCOLN                 40.15N 89.37W
06/22/2010  M1.83 INCH       LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAINFALL IN 1 HOUR AND 20 MINUTES.

1005 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LINCOLN                 40.15N 89.37W
06/22/2010                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INTERSECTION FLOODED IN LINCOLN AT WOODLAWN...5TH STREET
            AND BROADWAY...CARS STRANDED.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1020 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LINCOLN                 40.15N 89.37W
06/22/2010                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING INTO LINCOLN HIGH SCHOOL FROM PARKING
            LOT...ESTIMATED DEPTH 12 INCHES.

&&

25