Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
907 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 859 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

MOISTURE CHANNEL DATA SHOWS BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
FROM WESTERN WI TO WEST IL...WITH SOME TRAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF IA AND NORTHERN MO. STORMS NOW FIRING ON THE BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH REGION. WILL INCREASE POPS IN GRIDS.

GOETSCH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAF TREND. CHC OF STORMS THIS
EVENING WITH MAIN THREAT OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN TAF
SITES. SURFACE DATA SHOWS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INTERSECTION OF
BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTHEAST IA AND W CENTRAL IL PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT STORMS.

GOETSCH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

UPDATED TO CHANGE COORDINATION LINE...DROPPING FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS EVENING AND ADDING HEAT ADVISORY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO EVIDENT...BUT THE MOST NOTABLE BOUNDARY
CURVES FROM AROUND KIRKSVILLE MO...THROUGH THE ST LOUIS METRO
AREA...TO THE VICINITY OF LAWRENCEVILLE IL. THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUING TO REVOLVE AROUND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HOT IT WILL GET.

12Z MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
PATTERN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. NAMELY...
TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH FLAT RIDGING IN THE EAST. SHORT
WAVES OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXES RIDING THROUGH THE
FLAT RIDGE WILL HELP PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...
NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS DO NOT REALLY AGREE ON WHEN/WHERE
THESE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES WILL OCCUR. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OCCASIONAL SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...SO USING ANY
EXPLICIT MODEL SOLUTION REMAINS A DUBIOUS FORECAST. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE TENDED TO FOLLOW A BLENDED/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION BUT
INCLUDED EXTRAPOLATION/CONCEPTUAL MODELS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THE
UPPER/SURFACE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MCV
IS CURRENTLY TAKING AIM ON WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THIS WAVE
SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AS
IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
RESPECTABLE SHEAR...0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40KTS...SUPPORTS
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER ALSO SUPPORTS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS...AND THIS SHOULD
TRACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.

DEPENDING ON HOW TONIGHT/S MCS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE SAME GENERAL SCENARIO PLAYS OUT FOR OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MORE CLOSELY BE
TIED TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE REGION BY
LATE WEDNESDAY FROM A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE THAT WILL BEGIN TO TOP THE
FLAT MEAN EASTERN U.S. RIDGE.

THE CONTINUED WARM/HUMID AIR MASS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH HIGHS
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 70S...
SUGGESTS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES COULD BE AROUND 100 DEGREES IF NOT A
BIT HIGHER. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A HEAT ADVISORY IN MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE
STORMS WILL FORM AND THEIR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRACK...DO NOT PLAN ON
INCLUDING ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY
FOR TUESDAY FOR LOCATIONS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT. IN ADDITION...ONGOING ADVISORY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO RUN UNTIL ITS EXPIRATION THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT
INITIALLY STARTS OUT PRETTY GOOD...BUT SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT FRONTAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE.
THIS WILL ALLOW US TO STRING TOGETHER A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS OPPRESSIVE
HEAT. FOR THE WEEKEND MOST MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THE FLAT
EASTERN U.S. WILL REDEVELOP WHICH WOULD PROBABLY PUSH THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRENDS PRETTY LARGE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME
SUGGESTING STRONG RIDGING AND OTHERS SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG WAVE. AVERAGING OUT THESE SOLUTIONS GIVES YOU THE FLAT RIDGE
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. ALLOWED TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY TO CLIMB AGAIN WITH RIDGING
SLIGHTLY FAVORED...BUT LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT FOR THE MOST
PART WHILE AWAITING A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
402 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-221200-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
402 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. HEAVY RAINS OVER A VERY SATURATED GROUND FROM THE 5 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HENRY
THROUGH BEARDSTOWN THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. MINOR FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ON THE SPOON RIVER AS WELL...FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES...
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY TOP 100 DEGREES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>057-221200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCOTT-VERMILION-
402 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HENRY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BEARDSTOWN THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. FLOODING
IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE SANGAMON RIVER AT CHANDLERVILLE AND
MONTICELLO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES...
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ILZ061>063-221200-
CLARK-CUMBERLAND-SHELBY-
402 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HENRY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BEARDSTOWN THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. FLOODING
IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE SANGAMON RIVER AT CHANDLERVILLE AND
MONTICELLO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES...
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ILZ066>068-071>073-221200-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
402 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE LITTLE
WABASH RIVER BY CLAY CITY AND THE EMBARRAS RIVER AT LAWRENCEVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GOETSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
940 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     FLASH FLOOD      INDIANOLA               39.93N 87.74W
06/21/2010                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            15 INCHES OF WATER OVER CITY ROADS.

&&

JANKOWSKI

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