Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
604 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

.UPDATE...
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTING NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

COX
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

UPDATE...
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/I-135.

COX

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATES WILL HIGHLIGHT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE ROUNDS OF ACTIVE WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.

TONIGHT
A VOLATILE WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT STORMS TOO
RAPIDLY DEVELOP JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MID-LEVEL COOLING FROM VIGOROUS WAVE APPROACHES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY CAN SUPPORT
AND MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURE LONGER DUE TOO THE EXTREME SHEAR
TRYING TO RIP STORMS APART FURTHER NORTH. STORM MOTION WILL BE
MUCH FASTER THAN NORMAL WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF 50-55MPH. A
FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH COULD VENTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...MAINLY AFTER
4PM. LONG-LIFE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHERE AMPLE HEATING IS CREATING A BIGGER WARM SECTOR...BUT
SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY SO A RISK STILL EXISTS
EVEN WITH A SMALLER/NARROW WARM SECTOR. OTHERWISE ONCE THE MID-LEVEL
WIND MAX AND VEERING WINDS FROM UPPER SYSTEM CATCHES UP TO THE
CONVECTION IT WILL ALTER THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND SUPERCELLS
COULD EVOLVE INTO A BOWING LINE SEGMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BY THIS EVENING.

TUE-THU
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RE-ORGANIZE ITSELF ON TUESDAY AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
BECOMING FAVORABLE OVER NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS AND WILL ASSIGN HIGHER
POPS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR/ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD YIELD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IF THIS
SIGNAL REMAINS CONSISTENT THEN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

EXTENDED: FRI-MON
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO OVER RUN THIS BOUNDARY BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THUS WILL INTRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TAKING ITS TIME TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT THIS JUNCTURE AND MONITOR LATE
MODEL TRENDS FOR SYSTEM TIMING. DAILY TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR
COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF
KANSAS.

JAKUB

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WHEN THE
CEILINGS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING
THE CLEARING LINE STRETCHING FROM DDC TO JWG. BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...IT APPEARS LIKE THIS CLEARING LINE SHOULD REACH
ICT/HUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY REMAIN IN THE IFR CEILINGS DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST SHOT FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMS
BEFORE 00Z WILL BE AT THE HUT/ICT TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z IT LOOKS
LIKE THE STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE CNU TAF SITE. FURTHER NORTH
IT LOOKS LIKE THE IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SOME SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MAINLY BETWEEN 22 AND 00Z.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  74  60  83 /  40   0  40  40
HUTCHINSON      48  71  57  80 /  40   0  50  50
NEWTON          49  72  57  79 /  50   0  50  50
ELDORADO        51  74  59  80 /  60  10  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  78  63  83 /  50  10  30  40
RUSSELL         44  67  50  70 /  20   0  60  30
GREAT BEND      45  68  52  81 /  20   0  50  30
SALINA          47  68  52  72 /  40   0  60  60
MCPHERSON       48  70  56  77 /  40   0  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     56  78  64  80 /  80  20  30  20
CHANUTE         55  76  62  78 /  80  10  40  20
IOLA            54  75  61  78 /  80  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    56  78  64  79 /  80  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             LEON                    37.69N 96.78W
05/10/2010  E1.25 INCH       BUTLER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ELDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     TSTM WND GST     DOUGLASS                37.52N 97.01W
05/10/2010  E70 MPH          BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER TREES REPORTED DOWN.

0621 PM     HAIL             2 W ROSALIA             37.82N 96.66W
05/10/2010  E1.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT ALONG US 54

0621 PM     TSTM WND GST     EL DORADO               37.82N 96.86W
05/10/2010  E70 MPH          BUTLER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ELDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW DEXTER             37.21N 96.75W
05/10/2010  M63 MPH          COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ELDER

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