Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

.UPDATE...
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/I-135.

COX
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATES WILL HIGHLIGHT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE ROUNDS OF ACTIVE WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.

TONIGHT
A VOLATILE WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT STORMS TOO
RAPIDLY DEVELOP JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MID-LEVEL COOLING FROM VIGOROUS WAVE APPROACHES AND
WEAKENS THE CAP. THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY CAN SUPPORT
AND MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURE LONGER DUE TOO THE EXTREME SHEAR
TRYING TO RIP STORMS APART FURTHER NORTH. STORM MOTION WILL BE
MUCH FASTER THAN NORMAL WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF 50-55MPH. A
FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH COULD VENTURE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...MAINLY AFTER
4PM. LONG-LIFE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHERE AMPLE HEATING IS CREATING A BIGGER WARM SECTOR...BUT
SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY SO A RISK STILL EXISTS
EVEN WITH A SMALLER/NARROW WARM SECTOR. OTHERWISE ONCE THE MID-LEVEL
WIND MAX AND VEERING WINDS FROM UPPER SYSTEM CATCHES UP TO THE
CONVECTION IT WILL ALTER THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND SUPERCELLS
COULD EVOLVE INTO A BOWING LINE SEGMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BY THIS EVENING.

TUE-THU
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RE-ORGANIZE ITSELF ON TUESDAY AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
BECOMING FAVORABLE OVER NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS AND WILL ASSIGN HIGHER
POPS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR/ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD YIELD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IF THIS
SIGNAL REMAINS CONSISTENT THEN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

EXTENDED: FRI-MON
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO OVER RUN THIS BOUNDARY BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THUS WILL INTRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM TAKING ITS TIME TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AT THIS JUNCTURE AND MONITOR LATE
MODEL TRENDS FOR SYSTEM TIMING. DAILY TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR
COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF
KANSAS.

JAKUB

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WHEN THE
CEILINGS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING
THE CLEARING LINE STRETCHING FROM DDC TO JWG. BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION...IT APPEARS LIKE THIS CLEARING LINE SHOULD REACH
ICT/HUT BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY REMAIN IN THE IFR CEILINGS DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST SHOT FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMS
BEFORE 00Z WILL BE AT THE HUT/ICT TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z IT LOOKS
LIKE THE STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE CNU TAF SITE. FURTHER NORTH
IT LOOKS LIKE THE IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SOME SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MAINLY BETWEEN 22 AND 00Z.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  74  60  83 /  40   0  40  40
HUTCHINSON      48  71  57  80 /  40   0  50  50
NEWTON          49  72  57  79 /  50   0  50  50
ELDORADO        51  74  59  80 /  60  10  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  78  63  83 /  50  10  30  40
RUSSELL         44  67  50  70 /  20   0  60  30
GREAT BEND      45  68  52  81 /  20   0  50  30
SALINA          47  68  52  72 /  40   0  60  60
MCPHERSON       48  70  56  77 /  40   0  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     56  78  64  80 /  80  20  30  20
CHANUTE         55  76  62  78 /  80  10  40  20
IOLA            54  75  61  78 /  80  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    56  78  64  79 /  80  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1203 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-111015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1203 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT
SPEEDS OF 50 MPH. STRONG WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS...INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WICHITA TO IOLA. THE
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIT FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX/JMC

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