Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION/MOVEMENT THIS WEEKEND.

VERY INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO WAS DEVELOPING AT MID-AFTERNOON
WITH INTERACTION OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF KDDC
WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
JUST NORTH OF KICT. MEANWHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WAS SITUATED
FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN KANSAS. MESO ANALYSIS AND THE RUC
MODEL SUGGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE JUST
EAST OF SURFACE LOW AND ALONG MESO BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS AND A
FEW SUPERCELLS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF INITIATION WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY EAST OF SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO PRESENT A
RISK FOR TORNADOES UNTIL DARK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE
A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/LIFT IS PROGGED
BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. THERE IS SLIGHT CONCERN THAT SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY.

WHILE A VERY WARM AND BASICALLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND...THE CHALLENGE BECOMES HOW FAR SOUTH A MODIFIED
CANADIAN AIRMASS/COLD FRONT WILL COME BEFORE STALLING AND THEN
RETREATING NORTH AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY DEEP UPPER
LOW IS PROGGED TO ROTATE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...DISLODGING A CANADIAN AIRMASS SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT/POSITION...POSSIBLY TO ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. WHILE A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. FOR NOW HAVE
OPTED TO STAY WARM...THOUGH TRIMMED BACK MAXS A BIT FOR SUNDAY.
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS COULD RESULT IN THIS AIRMASS
COMING FURTHER SOUTH WITH COOLER MAXS...AND CAN BE REFINED BY
LATER SHIFTS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS EXPECTED WITH
POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CONVECTION AND FRONT TIMING ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES...CONFIDENCE LOW.

BOUNDARY RESIDES FROM KPTT-K9K8-KICT-KCFV LINE. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND 20-22Z. CONVECTION IS LEAST LIKELY TO AFFECT KRSL AND MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT KICT AND KCNU.

WINDS ARE VERY DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME...AS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BOUNDARY...WINDS SHOUDL REMAIN AROUND 12014KT WITH CIGS AROUND
2000 FEET. SOUTH OF IT...IT SHOULD BE 18018G28KT.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO 34012KT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  82  62  89 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      61  80  61  89 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          62  80  60  88 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  81  59  89 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  83  62  89 /  70  10  10  10
RUSSELL         58  79  60  87 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      58  80  61  89 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          60  79  60  89 /  20   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       60  79  61  89 /  20   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  82  60  89 /  60  10  10  10
CHANUTE         64  80  58  87 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            64  80  57  87 /  60  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  81  59  88 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
349 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
349 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...INCLUDING ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS...THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...INCLUDING HAIL
LARGER THAN GOLF BALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH
AND TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...INCLUDING ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/KRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1045 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     FLOOD            GORHAM                  38.88N 99.02W
09/15/2010                   RUSSELL            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN PROGRESS. DEPTH UNKNOWN.

0323 AM     HAIL             2 SW ASH GROVE          39.15N 98.38W
09/15/2010  E0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ACTUALLY DIME-SIZED WITH 40-45 MPH WINDS.

0334 AM     FLOOD            1 SSE RUSSELL           38.87N 98.85W
09/15/2010                   RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 281 SOUTH OF RUSSELL. CREEKS AND
            DRAINAGE DITCHES IN RUSSEL RUNNING BACK FULL.

0345 AM     HAIL             6 N SUSANK              38.73N 98.77W
09/15/2010  E0.88 INCH       RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL.

0400 AM     HAIL             6 S ASH GROVE           39.08N 98.35W
09/15/2010  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0543 AM     FLASH FLOOD      RUSSELL                 38.89N 98.85W
09/15/2010                   RUSSELL            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS IMPASSABLE IN CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY.

0548 AM     HEAVY RAIN       RUSSELL                 38.89N 98.85W
09/15/2010  M4.36 INCH       RUSSELL            KS   ASOS

0607 AM     HEAVY RAIN       RUSSELL                 38.89N 98.85W
09/15/2010  M4.92 INCH       RUSSELL            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FROM KSN WEATHERLAB SITE IN RUSSELL

0732 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E BROOKVILLE          38.77N 97.79W
09/15/2010  M1.40 INCH       SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL AS OF 630AM.

1011 AM     FLOOD            IOLA                    37.93N 95.40W
09/15/2010                   ALLEN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROADS IN TOWN. CREEKS NEAR BANKFULL AND STILL
            RAINING HEAVY.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1214 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 PM     FLOOD            IOLA                    37.93N 95.40W
09/15/2010                   ALLEN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CITY ROADS ARE NO LONGER CLOSED...BUT THERE ARE SOME
            ROADS AROUND THE COUNTY THAT HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

JMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
349 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KSZ067-152115-
RENO-
349 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RENO COUNTY...

AT 346 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARLINGTON...OR 13 MILES
WEST OF PRETTY PRAIRIE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

BILLINGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
401 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KSZ069-083-152130-
BUTLER-SEDGWICK-
401 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES...

AT 357 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTHEAST WICHITA...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST
OF DOWNTOWN WICHITA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

BILLINGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
418 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

KSZ068-083-152145-
HARVEY-SEDGWICK-
418 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARVEY AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES...

AT 416 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ANDALE...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN WICHITA...AND MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB

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