Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE MORNING MCS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND
THEN RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT.

THIS MORNING:
ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER MCS TO WORRY ABOUT...AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WAS SURGING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. THIS CONVECTION IS
BEING AIDED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AND 850H MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL KEEP THIS COMPLEX GOING STRAIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SO WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THIS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KS. BULK SHEAR
OF 40 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL KS SUGGESTS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
MORNING COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CLOUDS THINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL HELP WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...NEAR A SLN/GBD LINE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT TOO SURE
HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THIS CONVECTION WILL GET INITIALLY AS STRONGER CAP
EXISTS FURTHER SOUTH. BUT EXPECT SOME SORT OF BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
OVERNIGHT CONTINUES. SPEED SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
CERTAINLY SUGGESTS A SEVERE STORM CHANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
KS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BEFORE CONVECTIVE LINE TURNS INTO MORE
OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TONIGHT.

THU-FRI:
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTH INTO OK FOR THU.
A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS LOOK TO BE SETTING UP FOR THU AND FRI AS DRIER
AIR AND COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME
CONCERN ABOUT SOME MID LEVEL LIFT RETURNING TO CENTRAL KS FOR EARLY
FRI MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE..BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SEEMS A LITTLE LACKING. ALREADY HAVE SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AND WILL KEEP THIS FOR NOW. WILL SEE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOR FRI AS WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE
AREA...WITH ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP STAYING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF FRI.

SAT-MON:
NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE WEEKEND WILL PLAY OUT...AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA STAYING IN THE
WARM SECTOR FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION STAYING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. BUT LATEST GFS IS NOW SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTH INTO KS...POSSIBLY MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH INTO SRN KS FOR SAT AFTERNOON. ECMWF KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS NE KS AND STALLS IT OUT...AND IS THE MOST CONSISTENT...SO
WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE AREA FOR SAT FOR NOW. REST OF THE WEEKEND
LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS WELL.

KETCHAM

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND IS PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE INSERT VCTS IN RSL AND HUT AROUND 08Z THEN SLN AND ICT A
FEW HRS LATER. ALSO EXPECT CIGS TO DROP AS THE NIGHT GOES ON TO MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
20Z AND WILL EFFECT ALL SITES UNTIL 04Z. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH.

DUNTEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  69  82  63 /  30  50  10  10
HUTCHINSON      98  65  78  62 /  70  20  10  10
NEWTON          93  66  77  61 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        93  67  79  60 /  30  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  83  64 /  20  50  10  20
RUSSELL         92  62  79  61 /  90  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  62  79  61 /  90  10  10  20
SALINA          90  65  78  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       96  64  78  62 /  90  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     91  72  83  64 /  20  60  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  80  60 /  30  60  10  10
IOLA            89  68  79  59 /  30  60  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    91  70  81  63 /  30  60  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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