Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE HEAVY-VERY HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST 2 DAYS HAVE COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES & NEARLY CALM WIND TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
CNTRL KS EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR...VSBY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO KGBD & KHUT (BOTH 1/4SM FG) HOWEVER VSBYS AT KRSL HAVE
REMAINED VFR SO FAR. BEING PATCHY IN NATURE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
KRSL IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WL CERTAINLY CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. A 2ND CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE +RA OVER SE KS WHERE NO
DOUBT A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO RESIDE THAT'LL INTERACT
WITH A WEAK MID-LVL TROF/SHEAR AXIS THAT'LL BE LURKING ABOUT THE
PREMISES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS COULD CERTAINLY DROP TO 2-3SM
BUT DUE TO REASONS OF BREVITY HAVE OPTED ASSIGN ONLY TEMPO MVFR TO
KCNU FOR THIS MORNING WITH "VCSH/VCTS" ASSIGNED THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANOTHER TOUGH WEAK FLOW CONVECTIVE FORECAST. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
WHETHER CINH BE OVERCOME WITH PRIMARILY HEATING TO REINITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 0000 UTC RAOBS SHOWED
TOP/OUN HAVE DRIED OUT A BIT ALOFT. STILL APPEARS THAT BEST
MOISTURE...DOWN SOME FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WILL BE EAST OF
I-35...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KS. WEAK FLOW IN THE 850MB-700MB
LAYER SUGGESTS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT THETAE ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE OR
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALTHOUGH EACH MODEL HAS SOME SORT OF VERY WEAK
BULLSEYE. DO ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER TO AROUND SUNSET.  UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH COVERAGE TO EXPECT. GIVEN THE ANTECENDENT CONDITIONS...
FLOODING IS FAIRLY LIKELY IF STORMS TRAIN...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER STORMS WILL GO AND HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE...WILL NOT
EXTEND FLOOD WATCH. TEMPERATURES LIMITED A BIT WITH ALL THE
SURFACE WATER/MOISTURE TO EVAPORATE. APPEARS THAT SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP THIS MORNING WHERE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 60S.  HAD THERE BEEN A BIT MORE
UPSLOPE FLOW...WOULD BE TEMPTED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY.

WED-THU:
NOT SURE THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DIFFENCE ON WED WITH ONLY SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE AND HEATING TO SET OFF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL LIKELY COME WED NIGHT AS NEXT RIPPLE MOVES
THROUGH UP FLOW. ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL
LIKELY DRIFT INTO THE AREA AND HELP PUSH EFFECTIVE FRONT INTO THE
AREA LATER WED NIGHT AND INTO THU. UNCLEAR HOW FAR BOUNDARY WILL
GO...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THU...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO
QUESTIONABLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION AFFECTIVING INSOLATION.
ALSO SOME QUESTION ABOUT CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR OK BORDER IF SLOWER
GFS IS CORRECT VS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z ECMWF.

FRI-MON:

REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. -HOWERTON

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KCNU SITE
SHOULD GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY 08Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS FAR
WEST AS KICT ALL NIGHT...DUE TO LINGERING SHORTWAVE AND 850MB
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES...MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND
CLOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU. COULD ALSO SEE SCT-BKN
IFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU. FOR
TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING WEAK UPPER WAVE AND MOIST
LOW-LEVELS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST CHANCES FOR
KICT-KCNU.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  70  87  72 /  30  30  20  40
HUTCHINSON      87  70  86  70 /  20  20  20  40
NEWTON          85  69  86  70 /  30  30  20  40
ELDORADO        86  68  87  70 /  40  40  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  72  88  72 /  50  50  20  40
RUSSELL         89  67  87  66 /  10  10  30  50
GREAT BEND      90  67  86  67 /  10  10  30  50
SALINA          88  70  88  69 /  10  10  30  50
MCPHERSON       87  69  86  70 /  20  20  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     90  72  90  73 /  90  50  30  30
CHANUTE         87  72  89  72 / 100  50  30  30
IOLA            87  72  89  72 /  90  50  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  71  89  72 /  90  50  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
938 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-071445-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
938 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED SOME FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEE THE RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THOUGH FRIDAY. WITH
SATURATED GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT OR ORGANIZED THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

DUNTEN

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