Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A DEEP
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS EXPECTED...
CONCENTRATED MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE BECOMES MORE
ISOLATED WEST INTO THE INTERIOR MTNS...AND EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER...THE ATM IS QUITE UNSTABLE...WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTING ML CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT CELLS COULD
BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED ALONG COLD POOLS AS THEY ROLE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MTNS AND FHILLS FOR
THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT ALSO FEATURE SOLID CHANCES WELL INTO THE
PIEDMONT.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS EVENING...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE...ESP ACROSS THE WRN MTNS...WHERE IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THE ATM WILL BE AS WORKED OVER AS AREAS NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE. IN FACT...THERE ARE SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MIDDLE/EAST TENN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE SHOULD HAVE
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR WRN NC
EARLY THIS EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH...AS THE WEAK SHEAR AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY DOES
NOT BODE WELL FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY OOZE ACROSS THE CWFA...
LIKELY BRINGING MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...I/M RELUCTANT TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS...AS
LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY MAY
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ON FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...WILL SHOTGUN 50 POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...BEST UPPER FORCING MOVES E OF AREA FRI
NIGHT-SAT BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY TRACKS E OVER THE REGION. WITH FRONT
NEAR THE S CWA AND LOW LEVEL E FLOW DEVELOPING DURING DAY SAT...KEPT
CHC POPS OVER AREA...ESP S ZONES AND MOUNTAINS ALONG AND NEAR BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH COOLING SAT EVE
BUT HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROF LIFTS NE SUN BUT
MOIST LOW LEVEL E FLOW INCREASES AND MODEL BLEND YIELDS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS IN AREA OF BEST
UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE MTNS. EXPECT TEMPS A CATEGORY
COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH IS STILL ABOVE CLIMATE AVGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A
LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. DESPITE
THIS...APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD GIVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE MOISTURE
DRYS UP SOMEWHAT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND BY THURSDAY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS SHIFTED MORE WESTERLY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM IN THE
EXTENDED...KEEPING VALUES FIRMLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXISTING AT KCLT
AFTER 19Z. WILL CARRY VCSH/CB AT 19Z...AND MONITOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF A TEMPO LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW
TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...SO CB WILL BE EXTENDED TO 4Z...ALTHOUGH
ISLD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER. THE FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON WHETHER RAIN FALLS AT THE AIRFIELD
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...S/SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING...AND BECMG LGT/VRBL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MTNS AND IN VCNY OF LEE TROUGH. ONE CELL HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
VERY CLOSE TO KAVL...SO CB/VCSH WITH TEMPO FOR TS HAS ALREADY BEEN
INCLUDED THERE. KHKY/KGSP/KGMU WILL ALSO LIKELY EXPERIENCE
CONVECTION BY 20Z OR SO. THE FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING WILL
LARGELY DEPEND UPON WHETHER RAIN FALLS AT THE AIRFIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...S/SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...AND
BECMG LGT/VRBL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ009-011>014-019-061945-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-UNION NC-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
336 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTY WINDS. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS THAT REPEATEDLY AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-061945-
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
336 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-SCZ004>008-010-061945-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
336 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 576 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ017-061945-
HABERSHAM-
336 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTY WINDS. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS THAT REPEATEDLY AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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