Severe Thunderstorm Warning 355, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
140 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER TO THE NORTH AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION TODAY...AS A
MAJOR TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
COUNTRY. IN ADDITION TO RENDERING THE ATM MORE CONDUCIVE TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY...PROBABLY ENTERING THE AREA THIS
EVENING. IN THE INTERIM...A LEE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TODAY WITHIN STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS (ALONG WITH USUAL TERRAIN EFFECTS/DIFF HEATING) WILL PROVIDE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
HOT/MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD
RESULT IN CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG THIS PM...SO SCT
CONVECTION WILL HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM DEVELOPING. SOLID CHANCE POPS
WILL BE CARRIED BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTERN
ESCARPMENT...WITH 30 TO 4O POPS ELSEWHERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.

AS FAR AS THE HEAT...THICKNESS VALUES FROM MORNING RAOBS SUPPORT
NUDGING MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCR
SLIGHTLY...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN A FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD 105+
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT.

WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA...CONVECTIVE CHANCES REACH A
NADIR...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN INCR
TO LIKELY. POPS THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTERWARD...BUT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL STILL EXPERIENCE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...LIKE DEWPOINTS...
WILL REMAIN QUITE ELEVATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE AIDED BY UPPER JET DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
MAXIMA ROUNDING THE BROAD EASTERN TROUGH AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. THE BEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOUNDINGS WILL BE FAIRLY MOIST...BUT A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SE PIEDMONT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY.

THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
STALL ON SAT. MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT IN THE NW
FLOW...HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY. SFC BASED INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A WEDGE OF
STABLE AIR MAY SET UP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER TO THE N. THE BEST
POPS WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE MTNS WHERE SCATTERED COVERAGE COULD
DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN
A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS UPSLOPE IMPROVES IN THE SE FLOW. WITH FAIRLY
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS...WILL LOWER MAXES BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY IN WEAK CAD. WILL FEATURE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES IN
AND NEAR THE MTNS...WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SW SECTIONS EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM THURSDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS MON THROUGH WED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AND EVENING UNDER THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING EACH
DAY.

BY TUESDAY THE REMNANTS OF COLIN SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE WELL EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. BY
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXISTING AT KCLT
AFTER 19Z. WILL CARRY VCSH/CB AT 19Z...AND MONITOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF A TEMPO LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW
TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...SO CB WILL BE EXTENDED TO 4Z...ALTHOUGH
ISLD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER. THE FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON WHETHER RAIN FALLS AT THE AIRFIELD
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...S/SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING...AND BECMG LGT/VRBL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MTNS AND IN VCNY OF LEE TROUGH. ONE CELL HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
VERY CLOSE TO KAVL...SO CB/VCSH WITH TEMPO FOR TS HAS ALREADY BEEN
INCLUDED THERE. KHKY/KGSP/KGMU WILL ALSO LIKELY EXPERIENCE
CONVECTION BY 20Z OR SO. THE FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING WILL
LARGELY DEPEND UPON WHETHER RAIN FALLS AT THE AIRFIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...S/SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...AND
BECMG LGT/VRBL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JDL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1223 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

NCZ064-SCZ001-002-051700-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
1223 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OCONEE...
NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH
100 PM EDT...

AT 1216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF LAKE JOCASSEE...OR 17 MILES NORTH
OF WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE JOCASSEE...

HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3501 8307 3502 8301 3503 8303 3505 8305
      3507 8305 3507 8304 3507 8280 3491 8280
      3494 8309

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1252 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

NCZ064-065-051730-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
1252 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF ETOWAH...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ETOWAH...

HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3537 8237 3517 8244 3517 8247 3516 8251
      3525 8276 3541 8272

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
114 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

SCZ012-051800-
LAURENS-
114 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LAURENS COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM EDT...

AT 109 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAY COURT...OR 6 MILES
NORTH OF LAURENS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ORA...
  LAURENS...JOANNA AND CLINTON.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3451 8216 3466 8206 3467 8200 3465 8197
      3465 8195 3461 8192 3457 8184 3456 8174
      3438 8181

KRENTZ

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