Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS IN MID WEEK. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE VERY WEAK AND
DISSIPATE WHILE NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME DEGREE OF LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
FORM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SMALL CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE TN
BORDER OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS WILL DEW POINTS.

YET ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
ON MONDAY...BUT THIS ONE WILL BE QUITE WEAKER THAN THE LAST TWO...
AND FARTHER NORTH. CAPE WILL BE RESPECTABLE AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH
NO CAP...AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOLEST IN
THE PIEDMONT. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE WEST AND NORTH...
FOR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND PROXIMITY TO THE IMPULSE. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN HOTTER THAN TODAY...AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 IN A GOOD PART OF THE SC AND GA FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ATTAINED
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPPING SWD TOWARD
THE REGION. THE DEVELOPING CONSENUS AMONG THE NAM/GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES IS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT
LATE IN THE DAY TUE AND STRETCH ACROSS WRN NC THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A
VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF SFC EASTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE MODELS ARE ALSO REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
850 MB FLOW MORE WESTERLY. THE REAL QUESTION FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DURING THE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST PROFILES...VERY SOLID CHC POPS WILL BE FEATURED LATE
TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...FOCUSED MAINLY ON WRN NC. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO AND ALSO RETAIN
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WORDING.

DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO POOL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES TO PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLOSE TO 100 AGAIN IN MANY PIEDMONT LOCATIONS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF.

THE SFC FLOW MAY BE LESS UPSLOPE THROUGH WED...BUT THE FRONT COULD
LINGER IN NRN SECTIONS AS A SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES CREATES
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN VERY SOLID CHANCE POPS
FOR WED...HIGHER IN THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY
COOLER THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...A FLAT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN
LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS AS THERE IS NO MODEL TO HANG YOUR
HAT ON.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WITH
LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER.  IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THE PIEDMONT
COULD GET A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM THAT DEPARTING SYSTEM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON IF THE SYSTEM IS NOT FASTER AND IF
TROFINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST BECOMES JUST A LITTLE BETTER. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER RIDGING WILL
SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY.  A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THIS FRONT WILL FADE
OUT COMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO NOT MUCH FOR THE PIEDMONT.  THERE
IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR DAY 7...NEXT
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE EAST
COAST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  GFS MAINTAINS US UNDER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE AND LITTLE INCREASE IN
OVERALL MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 90
NEXT WEEKEND IN MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST...EXCEPT JUST BEFORE
DAWN WHEN THEY GO CALM. CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...FORMING A LOW VFR CEILING INTO TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL
BE TO SCATTERED TO MENTION CB AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
DAYBREAK CUMULUS SHOULD DIMINISH...LEAVING SCATTERED ANVIL DEBRIS
CIRRUS UNTIL HEATING PRODUCES SCATTERED CUMULUS AT MID MONDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOW VFR VISIBILITY AROUND DAWN...AND WITH
DEW POINT QUITE ELEVATED IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS WILL BE CARRIED IN
THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME ALL NORTHWEST
LATE TODAY...THEN WILL DIMINISH BEFORE DAWN. A LOW VFR CEILING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT KAND WHICH IS
FURTHEST FROM UPPER LEVEL FORCING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION CB...EXCEPT AT KHKY...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT..LEAVING
SCATTERED CIRRUS. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOW VFR FOG AT KAND...AND MVFR
FOG AT KAVL. CONFIDENCE IN THE MET GUIDANCE SUNRISE CEILING
RESTRICTION AT KAVL IS LOW...AND NO CEILING WILL BE CARRIED FOR NOW.
CUMULUS DEVELOPS MID MORNING MONDAY AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MOST LIKELY OVER THE MTNS. EARLY MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESP IN MTN VALLEYS. INCREASED
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-141900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
255 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
SMALL AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...DROPPING VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN AT
PRESENT...BUT LOCATIONS NEAR THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA BLUE
RIDGE MAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IF LATER DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEARLY
STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

NCZ065-509-510-132045-
EASTERN POLK-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-
407 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND POLK
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF EDNEYVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EDNEYVILLE...
  LAKE ADGER...
  COLUMBUS...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3545 8227 3543 8228 3540 8226 3540 8216
      3536 8209 3534 8208 3529 8202 3519 8210
      3520 8226 3536 8252 3546 8243 3546 8237
      3548 8237 3549 8234

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

NCZ068-070-132045-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-
408 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND AND
SOUTHERN GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF WACO...OR 5 MILES EAST OF
SHELBY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN...
  BESSEMER CITY...
  DALLAS...
  GASTONIA...
  LOWELL...
  CRAMERTON...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3515 8103 3517 8132 3516 8137 3524 8156
      3540 8147 3527 8101 3521 8100

HG

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