Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS IN MID WEEK. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE VERY WEAK AND
DISSIPATE WHILE NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME DEGREE OF LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
FORM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SMALL CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE TN
BORDER OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS WILL DEW POINTS.

YET ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
ON MONDAY...BUT THIS ONE WILL BE QUITE WEAKER THAN THE LAST TWO...
AND FARTHER NORTH. CAPE WILL BE RESPECTABLE AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH
NO CAP...AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOLEST IN
THE PIEDMONT. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE WEST AND NORTH...
FOR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND PROXIMITY TO THE IMPULSE. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN HOTTER THAN TODAY...AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 IN A GOOD PART OF THE SC AND GA FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ATTAINED
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR ANY DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPPING SWD TOWARD
THE REGION. THE DEVELOPING CONSENUS AMONG THE NAM/GFS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES IS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT
LATE IN THE DAY TUE AND STRETCH ACROSS WRN NC THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A
VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF SFC EASTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE MODELS ARE ALSO REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
850 MB FLOW MORE WESTERLY. THE REAL QUESTION FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY BE
WHETHER OR NOT THE SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DURING THE THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST PROFILES...VERY SOLID CHC POPS WILL BE FEATURED LATE
TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...FOCUSED MAINLY ON WRN NC. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO AND ALSO RETAIN
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WORDING.

DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO POOL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES TO PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLOSE TO 100 AGAIN IN MANY PIEDMONT LOCATIONS TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF.

THE SFC FLOW MAY BE LESS UPSLOPE THROUGH WED...BUT THE FRONT COULD
LINGER IN NRN SECTIONS AS A SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES CREATES
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN VERY SOLID CHANCE POPS
FOR WED...HIGHER IN THE NORTH...WITH TEMPS AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY
COOLER THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...A FLAT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN
LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS AS THERE IS NO MODEL TO HANG YOUR
HAT ON.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WITH
LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER.  IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THE PIEDMONT
COULD GET A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM THAT DEPARTING SYSTEM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON IF THE SYSTEM IS NOT FASTER AND IF
TROFINESS ALONG THE EAST COAST BECOMES JUST A LITTLE BETTER. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER RIDGING WILL
SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY.  A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THIS FRONT WILL FADE
OUT COMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO NOT MUCH FOR THE PIEDMONT.  THERE
IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR DAY 7...NEXT
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE EAST
COAST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  GFS MAINTAINS US UNDER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE AND LITTLE INCREASE IN
OVERALL MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 90
NEXT WEEKEND IN MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST...EXCEPT JUST BEFORE
DAWN WHEN THEY GO CALM. CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...FORMING A LOW VFR CEILING INTO TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL
BE TO SCATTERED TO MENTION CB AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
DAYBREAK CUMULUS SHOULD DIMINISH...LEAVING SCATTERED ANVIL DEBRIS
CIRRUS UNTIL HEATING PRODUCES SCATTERED CUMULUS AT MID MONDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOW VFR VISIBILITY AROUND DAWN...AND WITH
DEW POINT QUITE ELEVATED IN THE PIEDMONT...THIS WILL BE CARRIED IN
THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME ALL NORTHWEST
LATE TODAY...THEN WILL DIMINISH BEFORE DAWN. A LOW VFR CEILING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT KAND WHICH IS
FURTHEST FROM UPPER LEVEL FORCING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION CB...EXCEPT AT KHKY...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT..LEAVING
SCATTERED CIRRUS. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOW VFR FOG AT KAND...AND MVFR
FOG AT KAVL. CONFIDENCE IN THE MET GUIDANCE SUNRISE CEILING
RESTRICTION AT KAVL IS LOW...AND NO CEILING WILL BE CARRIED FOR NOW.
CUMULUS DEVELOPS MID MORNING MONDAY AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MOST LIKELY OVER THE MTNS. EARLY MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESP IN MTN VALLEYS. INCREASED
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-141900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
255 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
SMALL AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...DROPPING VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN AT
PRESENT...BUT LOCATIONS NEAR THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA BLUE
RIDGE MAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IF LATER DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEARLY
STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

NCZ037-132000-
DAVIE-
311 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN DAVIE COUNTY THROUGH 400
PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PFAFFTOWN TO
COURTNEY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FARMINGTON...
  MOCKSVILLE...
  BERMUDA RUN...
  ADVANCE...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3588 8037 3588 8040 3589 8057 3596 8070
      3605 8069 3605 8046 3594 8035 3590 8036

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

NCZ036-037-056-057-132000-
CATAWBA-DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
322 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CATAWBA...DAVIE...ROWAN AND
SOUTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF
CLEMMONS TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TURNERSBURG TO CONOVER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
  ADVANCE...
  TROUTMAN...
  CLEVELAND...
  TERRELL...
  LAKE NORMAN...
  SPENCER...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3550 8042 3551 8095 3555 8096 3555 8121
      3570 8139 3579 8112 3577 8111 3603 8044
      3594 8035 3590 8036 3588 8040 3585 8038
      3582 8047 3575 8045 3572 8038 3572 8033
      3565 8029 3558 8021

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

NCZ502-504-132000-
GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
329 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BURKE AND SOUTHERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLLETTSVILLE...OR 6 MILES WEST OF LENOIR...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HUDSON...
  GRANITE FALLS...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AS WELL AS
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

LAT...LON 3588 8133 3582 8134 3579 8133 3576 8137
      3570 8140 3569 8142 3584 8175 3591 8171
      3597 8158

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

NCZ053-065-132000-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
338 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BENT CREEK...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  AVERY CREEK...
  BILTMORE FOREST...
  FLETCHER...
  FAIRVIEW...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3555 8224 3546 8227 3543 8228 3543 8227
      3533 8230 3542 8273 3560 8269

HG