Tornado Warning 9, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
720 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.  A COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL SET UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY.  THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...AND
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING.  AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS RELATIVELY WEAK...IT APPEARS THAT THESE CELLS WILL BE PULSE IN
NATURE.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 OR 7
PM.

AFTER 7 PM...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES.  THIS FEATURE
SHOULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVIER RAIN
TO   IMPACT AREAS UP TO LANSING AND JUST SOUTH OF GRAND  RAPIDS.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP OVER 1.7 INCHES AND BOUNDARY
NEARLY STATIONARY...REPEATED CELLS COULD CAUSE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.  ALOFT A COUPLED JET WILL EXIST THAT WILL HELP VENT THE
THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL CAPE ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING.  SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0 TO 1 KM LAYER
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AROUND 03Z ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 94.  BY 07Z THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

I WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  MODEL LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN  CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FCST PERIOD AND WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(720 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
RAIN AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND FAR
SOUTHERN MI. THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST BY THE
STORMS IN AN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AT KAZO... KBTL
AND KJXN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD BE
REDUCED BRIEFLY INTO THE IFR OR EVEN LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT OUR
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IN THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS.

TSTORMS WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA BY 06Z SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO
NEAR DTW BY THEN. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 06Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...(300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE UNDER
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  WAVE  HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB CLOSE TO CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE FAST
MOVING...EAST OVER 40 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH IS THE CONCERN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS   STILL UNCERTAINTY OF EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF
WILL FALL.  HOWEVER WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING IN...RATHER HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MI.  MOISTURE IS
POOLING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH AN EXPECTED MCS FOR
FORM AND TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF  THIS BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING
CELLS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TRACK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI....FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES TONIGHT.
LM....NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     MJS
SHORT TERM:   MJS
LONG TERM:    LAURENS
AVIATION:     LAURENS
MARINE:       MJS
HYDROLOGY:    MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1135 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-061030-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1135 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 400 AM. STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
AREAS SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO LANSING LINE. TORNADOES...STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REMAINS LIKELY TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A
SAUGATUCK TO LANSING LINE.

LMZ844>849-061030-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1135 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF HOLLAND TONIGHT.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN. THE STORMS WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.  THEY
WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REMAINS LIKELY TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

DUKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
935 PM EDT SAT JUN 05 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELLEVUE                42.44N 85.02W
06/05/2010                   EATON              MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN.

0853 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLIVET                  42.44N 84.92W
06/05/2010                   EATON              MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN.

&&

GWETZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
938 PM EDT SAT JUN 05 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            5 WSW CHARLOTTE         42.54N 84.92W
06/05/2010                   EATON              MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            WATER OVER ROAD IN THE 4500 BLOCK OF WEST KALAMO.

&&

GWETZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1021 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

MIZ072-073-060315-
CALHOUN-KALAMAZOO-
1021 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1016 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR KALAMAZOO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GALESBURG...          CLIMAX...             AUGUSTA...
  SPRINGFIELD...        BATTLE CREEK...       CERESCO...
  CONVIS TWP...         MARSHALL...           LEE TWP...
  BABCOCK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4215 8560 4233 8564 4243 8491 4242 8473
      4221 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 256DEG 32KT 4226 8548

MEADE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

MIZ074-060330-
JACKSON-
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1025 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSON...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LEONI...              NAPOLEON...           BROOKLYN...
  MICHIGAN CENTER...    GRASS LAKE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4210 8414 4207 8444 4225 8450 4233 8413
      4211 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 256DEG 32KT 4219 8434

MEADE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 PM EDT SAT JUN 05 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W JACKSON             42.25N 84.47W
06/05/2010  E1.12 INCH       JACKSON            MI   COCORAHS

            THIS IS A ONE HOUR TOTAL FROM 1015 UNTIL 1115 PM.

&&

GWETZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1150 PM EDT SAT JUN 05 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GALESBURG               42.29N 85.42W
06/05/2010                   KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS A FUNNEL CLOUD LOOKING TOWARDS GALESBURG.

&&

GWETZEL