River Flood Warning 4, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
720 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.  A COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL SET UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY.  THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...AND
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING.  AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS RELATIVELY WEAK...IT APPEARS THAT THESE CELLS WILL BE PULSE IN
NATURE.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 OR 7
PM.

AFTER 7 PM...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES.  THIS FEATURE
SHOULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVIER RAIN
TO   IMPACT AREAS UP TO LANSING AND JUST SOUTH OF GRAND  RAPIDS.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP OVER 1.7 INCHES AND BOUNDARY
NEARLY STATIONARY...REPEATED CELLS COULD CAUSE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.  ALOFT A COUPLED JET WILL EXIST THAT WILL HELP VENT THE
THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL CAPE ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING.  SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0 TO 1 KM LAYER
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AROUND 03Z ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 94.  BY 07Z THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

I WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  MODEL LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN  CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
FCST PERIOD AND WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(720 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
RAIN AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND FAR
SOUTHERN MI. THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST BY THE
STORMS IN AN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AT KAZO... KBTL
AND KJXN DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD BE
REDUCED BRIEFLY INTO THE IFR OR EVEN LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT OUR
SOUTHERN TAF SITES IN THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS.

TSTORMS WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA BY 06Z SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO
NEAR DTW BY THEN. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 06Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...(300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE UNDER
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  WAVE  HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB CLOSE TO CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE FAST
MOVING...EAST OVER 40 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010)
FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH IS THE CONCERN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS   STILL UNCERTAINTY OF EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF
WILL FALL.  HOWEVER WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING IN...RATHER HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MI.  MOISTURE IS
POOLING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH AN EXPECTED MCS FOR
FORM AND TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF  THIS BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING
CELLS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TRACK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI....FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES TONIGHT.
LM....NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     MJS
SHORT TERM:   MJS
LONG TERM:    LAURENS
AVIATION:     LAURENS
MARINE:       MJS
HYDROLOGY:    MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1135 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-061030-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1135 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 400 AM. STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
AREAS SOUTH OF A SAUGATUCK TO LANSING LINE. TORNADOES...STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REMAINS LIKELY TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A
SAUGATUCK TO LANSING LINE.

LMZ844>849-061030-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1135 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF HOLLAND TONIGHT.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN. THE STORMS WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.  THEY
WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REMAINS LIKELY TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HOLLAND.

DUKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1228 AM EDT SUN JUN 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KALAMAZOO               42.28N 85.59W
06/06/2010                   KALAMAZOO          MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREETS IN DOWNTOWN KALAMAZOO ARE REPORTED TO BE
            FLOODING. SHERIFFS DEPT ALSO STATED THERE WAS WATER
            ENTERING BASEMENTS IN THE DOWNDOWN AREA.

&&

GWETZEL

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