Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
342 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WAS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ACROSS ONTARIO AND BRINGS A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

THE SREF MEAN 2M DEW POINT FORECAST HAD DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND MEAN PW FORECAST HAD 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z. MEDIAN SURFACE CAPE VALUES WERE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LI VALUES REACH THE
-3 TO -6 RANGE. INCREASING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CAN BE
EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OR WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH
AS I WOULD LIKE IT TO BE...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS THE FIRST
PERIOD. THE SREF QPF HAS THE MINNESOTA CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HRRR LOOP
FROM 03Z HAD SOME CONVECTION FORMING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AS THE CONVECTION FROM MINNESOTA REACHES THE AREA AND THE
GFS HAD QPF A FORECAST THAT WOULD SUGGEST STORMS IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE
LEFT THE MORNING PERIOD DRY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WISCONSIN.
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT BE THROUGH THE STATE BY 12Z.

SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAY ONE...WITH 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR BOTH HAIL AND WIND. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...SHEAR AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY. QUIET TO START...THEN
MOVING TOWARD A POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIOD.

QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. FOG COULD BE A CONCERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH EXPECTED RAINS LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTS WINDS...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION THIS FAR OUT AS MODELS ARE SHOWING 3-6F
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE 40S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICAL COOL
SPOTS...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS... MAKING FOR A FEW
CHILLY NIGHTS FOR SOME.

QUESTION IS HOW LONG THIS QUIET PERIOD WILL LAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING A RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL ONCE AGAIN...SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR
AREAS/COMPLEXES OF STORMS TO FORM. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN/IOWA ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A LLJ NOSES INTO THAT REGION. BEYOND THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE...GFS/ECMWF SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROF CROSSING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR
TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...AND A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW. GFS/ECMWF
SHOW TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF BETTER FORCING...ONE NORTH CLOSER TO
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...AND ONE SOUTH OF THE CWA CLOSER TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CANADIAN IS DRIER...AS IT TRIES TO WORK HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. DO NOT WANT TO BLANKET THESE PERIODS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND
LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL
OPT TO STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND
CONTINUE WITH THE AFTERNOON CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL WI ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS...AND HOW WIDESPREAD
PRECIP BECOMES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NOT MUCH
PRECIP...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH MORE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD/PRECIP. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CU EXPECTED TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. TORRENTIAL
RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AND LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MG/BERSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
516 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-281030-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
516 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-281030-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
516 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A
HAZARD FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1005 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

WIZ010-018-019-030-035-271615-
LANGLADE-LINCOLN-MARATHON-ONEIDA-WOOD-
1005 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1002 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 39 MILES WEST OF
RHINELANDER TO 25 MILES WEST OF WAUSAU TO 10 MILES WEST OF
MARSHFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SPENCER BY 1010 AM CDT...
  TRIPOLI BY 1020 AM CDT...
  TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL BY 1040 AM CDT...
  WOODBORO BY 1055 AM CDT...
  WAUSAU AND RIB MOUNTAIN BY 1105 AM CDT...
  WESTON BY 1115 AM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

TE