Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. STORMS APPROACHING GREEN BAY
HAVE WEAKENED FOR THE MOMENT. ANOTHER LINE OF SEVERE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. A THIRD LINE OF
SEVERE STORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
WERE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR. PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO END OR DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
STILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
AT MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS
ARE PCPN CHCS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND AGAIN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVG THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH WI SAT NGT/SUN...
ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT OF TSTMS...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
WX. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR MON/TUES...WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVG INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. DEVELOPING WAA IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHC OF TSTMS TUES NGT/WEDS...
ESP OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
THEN ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE STATE ON THURSDAY. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON WESTERLY WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
333 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-152045-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
333 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME URBAN
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-152045-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
333 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG WILL ALSO CAUSE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING THAT MAY POSE
NAVIGATION PROBLEMS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH

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