Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
413 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
SHORTWAVE WAS KICKING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR LARGER HAIL TO REACH THE GROUND WITH
A FEW REPORTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR. THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY SHOULD END THIS EVENING...THEN MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW
UNSTABLE WE GET ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICK
PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO THE REGION. CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS THIS HANDLED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

PCPN/SEVERE CHANCES WITH SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WED
NIGHT/THU FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOLLOWED EUROPEON/GFS
ENSEMBLE FOR GUIDANCE.

PROGRESSIVE...FLAT PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS PERIOD OVER NORTHERN
TIER OF THE U.S AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S MOST DAYS.

INITIAL SYSTEM...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ON HOW/IF SYSTEMS
PHASE LATER SUN/MON. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
CANADIAN AS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING SYSTEM BETTER AT CURRENT TIME.
HAVE EXITED THE SYSTEM FASTER MONDAY...RAISING TEMPS NORTH CENTRAL
ON MON WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WAA
PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED WED AHEAD OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE/TROF WORKING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS TRENDING DRY
THIS PERIOD...WILL FOLLOW SUIT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE
SHOWERS WITH WEAK WAVES LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM.

RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH CANADA INTO
HUDSON BAY REGION THU...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CUTTING ACROSS WI THU MORNING. A LOT A QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM. DYNAMICS STRONG AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MN...THOUGH WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OR LIFT NORTH OF WI BETWEEN 6-12Z THU. SHEAR MAXES
OUT AROUND 40 OVER NW WI ON ECMWF. INHIBITION ALSO STRONG AS 850MB
700MB TEMPS AROUND 18C TO 20C AND 11C TO 13C RESPECTIVELY. HAVE
RAISED POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE WED/EARLY THU
THOUGH NO GOOD FEELING ON SEVERE POTENTIAL YET.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...STARTING IN
THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREADING
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS AND CAUSE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DROP INTO THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ECKBERG/TE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1142 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111645-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1142 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK IS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATIONS OF THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT IS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR IN ADVANCE...THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE GENERATING THE STORMS SUGGESTS THAT STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT COULD
BE NECESSARY ON SUNDAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-111645-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1142 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY
RISK IS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG OVER THE BAY AND LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS THE FOG A FEW DAYS
AGO.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR IN ADVANCE...THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE GENERATING THE STORMS SUGGESTS THAT STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

ECKBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
211 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             PLOVER                  44.45N 89.53W
07/10/2010  E0.50 INCH       PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
235 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             PLOVER                  44.45N 89.53W
07/10/2010  M1.00 INCH       PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH

&&

TERIE

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