Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER WX. TEMPS WL BE WARM...WITH A
FEW ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA AS WX SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA.

UPR TROF POSN...WHICH HAS JUST PROGRESSED INTO ERN NOAM...WL GET
PULLED BACK TO THE W THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A COUPLE STG UPR
TROFS DEEPEN BACK TO THE W. STILL LOOKS LIKE FLOW WL DEAMPLIFY BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE DOMINANT FEATURE BEING BROAD UPR
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. SEASONABLY STG BAND OF
WESTERLIES WL FLOW ARND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AND INTO
AT LEAST SOME WEAK TROFFING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RGN AND THE NERN
CONUS.

PATTERN SHOULD YIELD TEMPS A LITTLE ABV NORMAL...BUT WITH A
COUPLE COOLER DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK BEHIND FIRST WX SYSTEM
CROSSING THE AREA. EXPECT 2 MAIN CHCS OF PCPN...ONE AS EACH UPR
TROF AND ASSOC SFC SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. OVERALL TREND ON THE
MODELS HAS BEEN TO BACK AWAY FM PHASING AND STRONGER SFC CYCLONE
WITH FIRST UPR TROF. NAM STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA...THOUGH IT
IS NOW WEAKER...SLOWER...AND FARTHER S. STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AS MODELS OFTEN DON/T TOTALLY LATCH ONTO PHASING SITNS
UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. BUT FOR NOW THAT OUTCOME SEEMS LIKE THE
LONGSHOT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/SUN. NRMS SML CUSTERS OF SHRA AND EVEN SOME
ISOLD TSRA ADVANCING QUICKLY TOWARD THE AREA FM THE NRN PLAINS...IN
WK ISENT LIFT REGIME. CAN/T RULE OUT PCPN GETTING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SO ADDED SLGT CHC POPS TO THE W. STILL LOOKS LIKE BETTER
CHC WL BE THIS AFTN AFTER WE/VE HAD TIME TO DESTABILIZE. KEPT MID-
RANGE CHC POPS FM PREV FCST...AS PCPN COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE SCT.
PWATS WAY DOWN FM THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THE SHOWERS/TSRA SHOULDN/T
YEILD THE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WE HAD DURING THE WK.

GIVEN THE AMNT OF PCPN OUT TO OUR W IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT
RIGHT NOW...CAN/T SEE ALL THIS AFTN/S ACTIVITY MAGICALLY GOING
AWAY AT 00Z...SO BLED IT INTO THE EVENING. I SUPPOSE ISOLD STUFF
COULD LINGER ALL NGT...BUT WANTED TO KEEP AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OF A
DRY PERIOD BEFORE MAIN SYSTEM ARRIVES.

EDGED POPS UP A BIT MOST AREAS FOR SUN. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FAR
SE COULD GET BY DRY...BUT PCPN CHCS ACRS THE NW LOOK VERY GOOD
WITH FRONT GETTING INTO THE AREA BY 00Z. TOOK N-C WI UP TO HIGH
LIKELY POPS...AND NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO PUSH THEM UP TO
CATEGORICAL.

SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WK TDA...SO SVR THREAT LOW. THERE WL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PULSE TYPE STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT WOULD EXPECT THOST TO REMAIN BLO SVR
CRITERIA. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA IN DY2 SLGT RISK OF SVR WX.
THAT LOOKS GOOD AS MOISTURE WL CONT TO INCR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAIN
UNKNOWN IS THE AMNT OF CLD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THINK E-C WI
WL PROBLABY GET THE WARMEST AS IT WL BE FURTHER FROM THE FRONT.
BUT BEST FORCING AND SHEAR WL BE BACK OUT TO THE WEST. PLAN TO
MENTION LOW-END CONDITIONAL SVR RISK IN THE MORNING HWO. WIND
LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT.

EDGED TEMPS UP A BIT FOR TDA GIVEN LACK OF CLDS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WL LIKELY BE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN
YDA. BUT OVERALL...DIDN/T STRAY TOO FAR FM PREV FCST FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION DURATION AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM ARE
THE MAIN CONCERN...FOLLOWED BY TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUED TO MOVE THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT ALSO HAD A LARGE QPF MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
AROUND SMALL STREAMS AND IN URBAN AREAS...COULD PRODUCE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

HPC FAVORED A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z HI RES ECMWF COMPROMISE...AS
MENTIONED IN THEIR PRELIMINARY MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION. BOTH
HAD 6 HOUR QPF MAX VALUES IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH IN DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS. THE CANADIAN HAD SOME LINGERING QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSED SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN...WHILE THE EC KEPT QPF IN THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH WISCONSIN AT THE SAME TIME. WENT WITH
A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN SINCE QPF VALUES ON THE EC WERE
ONLY AROUND 0.02 INCH. HAVE A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FOR 00Z-06Z TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...APPROACH
THE FORECAST AREA. EC AND CANADIAN WERE BOTH INDICATING LARGE QPF
VALUES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN
ONCE AGAIN.

MOS GUIDANCE AND/OR HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...PLAN RIGHT NOW IS TO COVER MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
SHRA/TSRA WITH A TEMPO GROUP IN THE 12Z TAFS. IN REALITY...PERIOD
WHERE PCPN WL BE POSSIBLE WL BE QUITE A BIT BIGGER. BUT COVERAGE WL
BE LIMITED SO DON/T WANT TAFS TO COME OUT LOOKING TOO WET.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SKOWRONSKI/MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1142 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111645-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1142 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK IS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATIONS OF THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT IS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR IN ADVANCE...THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE GENERATING THE STORMS SUGGESTS THAT STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT COULD
BE NECESSARY ON SUNDAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-111645-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1142 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY
RISK IS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG OVER THE BAY AND LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS THE FOG A FEW DAYS
AGO.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THAT FAR IN ADVANCE...THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE GENERATING THE STORMS SUGGESTS THAT STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

ECKBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
211 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             PLOVER                  44.45N 89.53W
07/10/2010  E0.50 INCH       PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
235 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             PLOVER                  44.45N 89.53W
07/10/2010  M1.00 INCH       PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH

&&

TERIE

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