Tornado Warning 3, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
908 PM MDT THU MAY 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
ALSO RAISED THE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED BY RECENT
RAINS. RSMITH

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTER
MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND HIGHER
SURFACE PRESSURES INCREASING TO THE NORTH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVING
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO NEW RADAR
RETURNS WERE SEEN LOCALLY. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES WERE COOLING EARLIER TODAY...BUT AS OF 2030Z...THEY ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMING AGAIN. OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...SKIES HAVE
CLEARED PARTIALLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHER DEWPOINTS...INTO THE MID 60S...HAVE ALSO
SURGED NORTH INTO THAT AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED CAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO 3000 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF OUR CWA WILL RAISE SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS FAR AS OTHER SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM 21Z TO 03Z...TOTAL
TOTALS INDEX VALUES FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...K INDEX
VALUES FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...LIFTED INDEX VALUES RANGING
FROM -4 TO -9. NEWEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTION OUTLOOK UPDATE
DISCUSSION...20Z...HAS NO NEW INFORMATION FOR NEMONT.

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS
SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE SLOW GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL ALSO PUSH
HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER EAST
MAINLY OVER THE DAKOTAS BEGINNING TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEMONT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST MADE TWEAKS TO POPS FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO LOWER A BIT. JAMBA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COLD AND WET WEATHER INTO THE AREA. WITH 850 MB FALLING
TO AS COLD AS -2C...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. WILL MENTION A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH EXITS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH ENTERS WESTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. EITHER WAY...NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR NEXT THURSDAY WITH GFS DRY AND ECMWF
WET AS IT BRINGS WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE RIDGE. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS AT GLASGOW AND WOLF POINT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
SIDNEY AND GLENDIVE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ONLY BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 02Z FOR KGGW AND
KOLF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS EVENING MAY LOWER
CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR KSDY AND KGDV...AND TO LIFR FOR KGGW AND
KOLF TONIGHT HOWEVER. MORE OF A CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE GREATEST THREAT.
AFTER ABOUT 17Z...MVFR TO BORDERLINE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR ALL SITES. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT. JAMBA/BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...
MCCONE...RICHLAND...DAWSON...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX...NORTHERN
VALLEY...EASTERN ROOSEVELT.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1007 AM MDT THU MAY 27 2010

MTZ016>027-059>062-281200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
1007 AM MDT THU MAY 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST MONTANA
POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
WITH MANY SMALL STREAMS NEAR BANKFULL AND GROUND SATURATED FROM
RECENT RAINS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA ROUGHLY EAST OF SACO TO COHAGEN LINE.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FORT PECK LAKE THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH OVER FORT PECK LAKE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NEAR THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.

COLD AIR WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. MORE RAIN IS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
916 PM MDT THU MAY 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     TORNADO          9 S BROCKWAY            47.17N 105.76W
05/27/2010                   PRAIRIE            MT   STORM CHASER

            TWO SETS OF STORM CHASERS REPORTED A ROPE TORNADO THAT
            TOUCHED DOWN SOMETIME BETWEEN 854 TO 859 PM. THERE ARE
            SOME CONFLICTS BETWEEN REPORTS ON TIMING AND EXACT
            LOCATION. THE TORNADO WAS ONLY ON THE GROUND FOR 15
            SECONDS. THIS INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY AT THIS TIME.

&&

TANJAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
921 PM MDT THU MAY 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HAIL             12 W BROCKWAY           47.30N 106.02W
05/27/2010  E1.00 INCH       MCCONE             MT   PUBLIC

&&

RSMITH

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