Tornado Warning 17, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
308 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND IS LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
IS STILL WORKING SOUTHWARD AND WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
SOUTH OF COMANCHE TO NEAR SEAGOVILLE AT 2 PM. TO THE NORTH...RADAR
SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN DENTON COUNTY TO NORTH
DALLAS...AND SEEMS TO EXTEND ALONG I-20 BETWEEN DALLAS AND
LONGVIEW. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BE SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE
TRIPLE POINT (COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUNCTION) THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SEE NO REASON THIS CONVECTION WILL END BEFORE
EARLY EVENING. IT MIGHT EVEN EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS AREAS WEST OF I-35 REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND THE
CAP STRENGTH GOES TO ZERO. AFTERWARDS...UPPER TROUGH (700/500MB)
AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA AND CONVECTION MOVES FURTHER INTO EAST
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. WILL LINGER A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE GFS HAS BEEN BEST WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT TODAY AND WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PLACES THE FRONT
ALONG A CANTON TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT...PROVIDED
CONVECTION DOES NOT SEND THE EASTERN PORTION FURTHER SOUTH. IT
SHOULD RETREAT NEAR I-20 BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

NOT MUCH TO ADD ABOUT DAYS 3-7. THE EURO...CANADIAN AND GFS ALL
BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE TAKE UP
RESIDENT OVER THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OCCUPIES THE WESTERN CONUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE NORTH TEXAS WITH A
PERIOD OF LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE/RE LIKELY TO SEE MID 90S THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL A LITTLE IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN
UPPER TROUGH.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              72  92  73  93  72 /  30   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  88  69  90  70 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            64  92  70  92  71 /  10   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          64  91  71  91  70 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            71  93  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           69  91  71  92  71 /  20   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         70  91  72  91  71 /  70   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  90  71  93  71 /  20   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  92  70  92  69 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

69/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A CISCO TO SHERMAN LINE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT ALSO EXISTS.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUESTED TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A CISCO TO SHERMAN LINE.

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1241 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

TXZ118-201815-
TARRANT TX-
1241 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 1239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR NORTHWEST ARLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ARLINGTON...DALWORTHINGTON
GARDENS...AND PANTEGO.

HALF-INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FLANKING LINE...BETWEEN
KENNEDALE AND BURLESON.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TARRANT COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3279 9703 3255 9702 3255 9735 3275 9722
      3281 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 274DEG 21KT 3271 9711

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NE COMO               33.14N  95.38W
05/20/2010                   HOPKINS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEBRIS REPORTED NEAR INTERSECTION OF I30 AND HWY 67.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
212 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TORNADO          MIDLOTHIAN              32.48N  96.98W
05/20/2010                   ELLIS              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO REPORTED VIA HAMS AT HWY 67 AND HWY 287

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     TORNADO          3 NW MIDLOTHIAN         32.51N  97.02W
05/20/2010                   ELLIS              TX   OTHER FEDERAL

            REPORTED FROM ARLINGTON AIRPORT TOWER OBSERVER. VIEWED 8
            MILES TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     HAIL             PALMER                  32.43N  96.67W
05/20/2010  E1.00 INCH       ELLIS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED FM 878 AND EAST CAMPUS NEAR
            PALMER

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