Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
308 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND IS LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
IS STILL WORKING SOUTHWARD AND WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
SOUTH OF COMANCHE TO NEAR SEAGOVILLE AT 2 PM. TO THE NORTH...RADAR
SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN DENTON COUNTY TO NORTH
DALLAS...AND SEEMS TO EXTEND ALONG I-20 BETWEEN DALLAS AND
LONGVIEW. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BE SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE
TRIPLE POINT (COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUNCTION) THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SEE NO REASON THIS CONVECTION WILL END BEFORE
EARLY EVENING. IT MIGHT EVEN EXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS AREAS WEST OF I-35 REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND THE
CAP STRENGTH GOES TO ZERO. AFTERWARDS...UPPER TROUGH (700/500MB)
AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA AND CONVECTION MOVES FURTHER INTO EAST
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. WILL LINGER A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE GFS HAS BEEN BEST WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT TODAY AND WILL
FOLLOW ITS GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PLACES THE FRONT
ALONG A CANTON TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT...PROVIDED
CONVECTION DOES NOT SEND THE EASTERN PORTION FURTHER SOUTH. IT
SHOULD RETREAT NEAR I-20 BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

NOT MUCH TO ADD ABOUT DAYS 3-7. THE EURO...CANADIAN AND GFS ALL
BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE TAKE UP
RESIDENT OVER THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OCCUPIES THE WESTERN CONUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE NORTH TEXAS WITH A
PERIOD OF LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE/RE LIKELY TO SEE MID 90S THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL A LITTLE IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN
UPPER TROUGH.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              72  92  73  93  72 /  30   5   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             62  88  69  90  70 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            64  92  70  92  71 /  10   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          64  91  71  91  70 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            71  93  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           69  91  71  92  71 /  20   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         70  91  72  91  71 /  70   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  90  71  93  71 /  20   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  92  70  92  69 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

69/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
354 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUESTED TODAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS THAT WILL NEED TO ACTIVATE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AREA AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

CAVANAUGH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
501 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             3 NW KERENS             32.16N  96.27W
05/20/2010  E1.25 INCH       NAVARRO            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL 3 MI NW OF KERENS