Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

.AVIATION...
WV SAT LOOP SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRY PUNCH ACROSS WEST TEXAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG POSITION-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT TSRA ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...THUS
WILL NOT CARRY ANY CONVECTION REST OF THE EVENING. CONTINUED DRY
FOR KACT. CURRENT MVFR CIGS AT A FEW SITES SHOULD GO VFR ABOVE
5000FT AROUND TAF RELEASE TIME...HOWEVER...KDAL MAY HOLD ON ONE HOUR
LONGER. AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR 00-01Z...WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO GO WESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE IN SPEED 15-19KT FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE 02-07Z.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010/
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE SLOWED HEATING TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND WILL LIKELY SEE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BY 3 PM. DRYLINE IS SHAPING UP NICELY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS /FROM APPROXIMATELY WICHITA FALLS TO SAN ANGELO/ AND
WILL BE ADVANCING EAST THIS EVENING. 18Z FWD SOUNDING INDICATES AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE WITH SBCAPE OF 1900 J/KG AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-500 MB. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NOW ORIENTED FROM COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS
AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST INSTABILITY STILL IS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
BUT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
INCREASING /IN THE VICINITY OF OR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WHERE
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT/. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN
CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION...THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND DRY AIR INVADES FROM THE
WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLEARING
THE AREA.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT/IMPACT OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW...PRESENTING A POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES STILL LOOKS TO BE EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 AND WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND HELPS TO COOL TEMPS BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.      82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  68  43  71  51 /  40   5   0   5  20
WACO, TX              45  71  43  72  54 /  40   5   0   5  20
PARIS, TX             47  62  40  68  51 /  80  10   0   5  20
DENTON, TX            42  67  43  70  49 /  40   5   0   5  20
MCKINNEY, TX          44  66  42  69  50 /  50   5   0   5  20
DALLAS, TX            48  68  43  70  53 /  40   5   0   5  20
TERRELL, TX           48  67  44  71  53 /  50   5   0   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         47  70  44  73  54 /  40   5   0   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            47  73  44  73  55 /  30   5   0   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

75/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
405 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG AND
EAST OF A BOWIE...GRANBURY...WACO...HEARNE LINE.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST NEAR THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED WEST OF I-35 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...AS GUSTY SOUTH AND WEST WINDS 15
TO 20 MPH COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
433 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

TXZ122-135-202300-
VAN ZANDT TX-HENDERSON TX-
433 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 433 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ATHENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE EDOM AND VAN.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3221 9580 3235 9594 3256 9567 3241 9550
      3240 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 231DEG 22KT 3229 9581

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
443 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

TXZ103-118-202315-
DENTON TX-TARRANT TX-
443 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL DENTON COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTY

AT 443 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF KELLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ARGYLE...BARTONVILLE...
COPPER CANYON...CORRAL CITY...DOUBLE OAK...FLOWER MOUND...HASLET...
HIGHLAND VILLAGE...KELLER...NORTHLAKE...ROANOKE...SOUTHLAKE...TROPHY
CLUB AND WATAUGA.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3320 9715 3306 9697 3285 9726 3290 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 222DEG 21KT 3293 9729

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