Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ARRIVED AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS...AND BRIEF
SQUALLS TO ABOUT 45-50MPH OCCURRED WITHIN A SMALL BOW ECHO THAT
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT DFW AND DAL. CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIGHTNING
SHOULD STOP AVIATION FOR ABOUT AN HOUR...AND THEN STORMS WILL
SCATTER OUT AS MAIN AREA MOVES ON SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE...SO WILL STICK WITH PREVAILING EXPECTED
NUMBERS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH/FINE TUNE ONSET TIMING AT
KACT...WHICH STILL SHOULD SEE THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER ON...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR LATE
MORNING. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
340 AM
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. CURRENT
STATIONARY FRONT (COMANCHE- DALLAS-PARIS) WILL LIFT NORTHWEST
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST
MODELS INDICATE BEST LOCATIONS FOR STORMS TO BE NORTHWEST OF A
LAMPASAS TO BONHAM LINE TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. COME SUNDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND
PRODUCING AN MCS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES OVER FOR
MONDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL
RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WESTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTS RIDGE AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WEST MOVES OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

FORECAST CAPE AND CIN FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. WHERE STORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND...WHILE THOSE MOVING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ELEVATED AND LOSE THEIR DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. COME SUNDAY...ALL STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SURFACE
AIR. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG (25KTS) TODAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT IT INCREASE FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHEN IT REACHES 35-40KTS SUNDAY EVENING.

NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES TODAY
AND SATURDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD DOMINATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.  75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  68  84  68  84 /  80  60  40  50  50
WACO, TX              86  69  84  69  84 /  50  50  30  20  40
PARIS, TX             82  67  81  66  80 /  60  60  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            81  67  83  67  84 / 100  60  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          83  67  82  66  82 /  70  60  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            85  69  84  68  83 /  70  60  40  50  50
TERRELL, TX           86  67  84  67  83 /  50  60  40  50  50
CORSICANA, TX         86  67  84  68  83 /  40  50  40  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            86  68  83  69  84 /  40  40  30  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  64  82  66  83 / 100  60  30  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>094-
100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145.

&&

 /

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
216 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TXZ094-141945-
FANNIN TX-
216 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN FANNIN COUNTY

AT 217 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF BONHAM...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BAILEY...BONHAM...DODD
CITY...ECTOR...LEONARD AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3373 9600 3338 9608 3335 9629 3335 9634
      3371 9634 3371 9631 3374 9630 3379 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 191DEG 15KT 3341 9621

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
238 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TXZ094-095-142015-
LAMAR TX-FANNIN TX-
238 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN FANNIN COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES EAST OF BONHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DODD CITY AND HONEY GROVE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3389 9557 3347 9586 3348 9612 3389 9596
      3389 9593 3386 9587 3385 9583 3387 9581
      3386 9578 3390 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 203DEG 14KT 3366 9593

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