Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ARRIVED AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS...AND BRIEF
SQUALLS TO ABOUT 45-50MPH OCCURRED WITHIN A SMALL BOW ECHO THAT
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT DFW AND DAL. CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIGHTNING
SHOULD STOP AVIATION FOR ABOUT AN HOUR...AND THEN STORMS WILL
SCATTER OUT AS MAIN AREA MOVES ON SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE...SO WILL STICK WITH PREVAILING EXPECTED
NUMBERS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH/FINE TUNE ONSET TIMING AT
KACT...WHICH STILL SHOULD SEE THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER ON...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...LIFTING TO VFR LATE
MORNING. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
340 AM
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. CURRENT
STATIONARY FRONT (COMANCHE- DALLAS-PARIS) WILL LIFT NORTHWEST
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST
MODELS INDICATE BEST LOCATIONS FOR STORMS TO BE NORTHWEST OF A
LAMPASAS TO BONHAM LINE TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. COME SUNDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND
PRODUCING AN MCS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES OVER FOR
MONDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL
RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WESTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTS RIDGE AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WEST MOVES OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

FORECAST CAPE AND CIN FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. WHERE STORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND...WHILE THOSE MOVING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ELEVATED AND LOSE THEIR DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. COME SUNDAY...ALL STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SURFACE
AIR. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG (25KTS) TODAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT IT INCREASE FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHEN IT REACHES 35-40KTS SUNDAY EVENING.

NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES TODAY
AND SATURDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD DOMINATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.  75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  68  84  68  84 /  80  60  40  50  50
WACO, TX              86  69  84  69  84 /  50  50  30  20  40
PARIS, TX             82  67  81  66  80 /  60  60  40  40  50
DENTON, TX            81  67  83  67  84 / 100  60  40  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          83  67  82  66  82 /  70  60  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            85  69  84  68  83 /  70  60  40  50  50
TERRELL, TX           86  67  84  67  83 /  50  60  40  50  50
CORSICANA, TX         86  67  84  68  83 /  40  50  40  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            86  68  83  69  84 /  40  40  30  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  64  82  66  83 / 100  60  30  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>094-
100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1053 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
BONHAM...ROCKWALL...WAXAHACHIE...TO GOLDTHWAITE. RAINFALL OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-35...MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS PRODUCING HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND GUSTY DOWN BURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS SUNDAY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY SOUTH OF
I-20...A SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY NORTH OF I-20....AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

84

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