River Flood Warning 89, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
435 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE MCS IS FINALLY DEPARTING NWRN IA...BUT LEFT A LOT OF FLOODING
TO CONTEND WITH IN CHEROKEE COUNTY...AND PARTS OF BUENA VISTA
COUNTY. LATER WE WILL TRY TO FIND OUT FLOODED CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN
WOODBURY AND IDA COUNTIES. 88D STORM TOTAL PCPN SHOWS CHEROKEE
COUNTY THE FOCUS AREA...WITH 6 TO 9 INCHES COMMON. SOME SURFACE
REPORTS ARE INDEED OVER 6 INCHES SO THE ESTIMATES MAY NOT BE TOO
BAD. CENTRAL IDA COUNTY SHOWS 4 TO 6 INCHES. FINALLY...MUCH OF BUENA
VISTA...SOUTHERN O BRIEN AND SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTIES SHOW A
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. AGAIN...THESE ARE 88D
ESTIMATES. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR CHEROKEE
AND BUENA VISTA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM TODAY WITH NUMEROUS ROADS
UNDER WATER AND NOT IMPROVING QUICKLY WITH THE GROUND
SUPERSATURATED. AT LEAST FOR A WHILE...TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED IN
CHEROKEE COUNTY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT OUR STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT ARE
SWEEPING THROUGH OUR ERN ZONES AS WE SPEAK...GIVING A QUIET DAY WX
WISE FOR THIS AREA. DRIER NW WINDS WILL BE FOUND...RATHER BREEZY IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS IN E CENTRAL SD AND
SW MN...WHERE I PLACED SOME ISOLATED CHANCES FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA IS UNDER THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF MOVG SEWD FROM S CENTRAL CANADA...COUPLED WITH A VERY
SUBTLE RR QUAD ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK IN ND AND NRN MN. BUT
THE ACTIVITY WL NOT BE ANY SHOW STOPPER FOR OUTDOOR PLANS. H85 TEMPS
CONT TO MIX TO LEVELS OF WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF MOVES SEWD THRU MN. THIS
FEATURE DRAGS A WEAK CDFNT THRU THE FSD FA...AND HAS THE AFFECT OF
NOTCHING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK A CATEGORY ON MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE
A VERY PLEASANT DAY.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR A CHANGE...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL. ONE SMALL THING TO
WATCH FOR IS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR WRN ZONES...WHERE THE RETURN
OF A DECENT LLJ BEGINS. SOMETIMES AT THE ONSLAUGHT OF A
STRENGTHENING LLJ...THE WAA IS PRETTY INTENSE AND CAN CAUSE SOME
ELEVATED TSRA. BUT RIGHT NOW THE RH TIME SECTIONS ARE VERY DRY IN
THIS AREA FOR TUE NIGHT.         /MJF

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING CONVECTION...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.   /JM

&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
521 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-281200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
521 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING...
MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS AND SOME TRIBUTARIES ARE IN FLOOD DUE TO
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THE JAMES RIVER WILL BE IN FLOOD FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ELSEWHERE...MANY PARTS OF THE BIG SIOUX AND
VERMILLION RIVERS IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS
WELL AS THE LITTLE SIOUX RIVER IN NORTHWEST IOWA...WILL BE IN
FLOOD FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DES MOINES RIVER IN
JACKSON MINNESOTA WILL ALSO BE IN FLOOD INTO EARLY WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS ALSO CAUSED WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING IN CHEROKEE
COUNTY IOWA...AS WELL AS PARTS OF BUENA VISTA COUNTY IOWA. SOME
ROADS...HIGHWAYS...AND MANY LOW AREAS HAVE BECOME INUNDATED WITH
WATER IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES MAKING TRAVEL IN AREAS DIFFICULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.