River Flood Warning 83, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TONIGHT. STORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN
SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE ANDES TO MADISON TO
PIPESTONE TO SPIRIT LAKE. STORMS ALONG THIS LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CARRY THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. EXTREME CAPE OF 4000-
5000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODERATE WIND SHEAR SHOULD PRODUCE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TONIGHT...DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. NOT GOING TO ADD ANY SHOWERS...BUT
COULD SEE A PASSING SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IN MAINLY SW MN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGS BY. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. AS THIS WAVE PASSES A SECONDARY COOL
FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL
DRY AIR. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MONDAY AND
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SW MN TO THE MID 80S IN
SC SD.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS(THU/SUN)...STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOULD
BE DRY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE NOT EXCEEDINGLY HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ONLY
ADD SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFTER 20Z...PUSHING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHWAY 14 THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS.

&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     021-022-032.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

NE...NONE.
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>067.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1121 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-271200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1121 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. ISOLATED STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
HIGHWAY 14 FROM HURON TO BROOKINGS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG HIGHWAY 34
OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 3PM.	THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND TORNADOES.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AFTER 4 PM ALONG A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MADISON TO LAKE ANDES.  THESE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  AS THESE STORMS SHIFT EAST....THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND OF 60 TO
80 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

FLOODING...
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ALONG PARTS OF THE BIG SIOUX AND VERMILLION RIVERS IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE SIOUX
RIVER IN NORTHWEST IOWA. THE JAMES RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AREAL FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES IN EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT MAY FURTHER AGGRAVATE
FLOODING CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TONIGHT
FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA FOR THIS ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL.

EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES...
THE HEAT INDEX MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND
NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
841 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             5 W HUDSON              43.13N 96.55W
06/26/2010  E1.25 INCH       LINCOLN            SD   STORM CHASER

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
856 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N VALLEY SPRINGS      43.65N 96.46W
06/26/2010                   MINNEHAHA          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING IN CREEKS AND STREAMS

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
900 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N VALLEY SPRINGS      43.61N 96.46W
06/26/2010                   MINNEHAHA          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED IN BOOGE, 4 MILES NORTH OF VALLEY
            SPRINGS. ALSO, LARGE TREE BRANCHES ARE DOWN FROM WINDS
            ESTIMATED AT 50 TO 60 MPH EARLIER IN THE EVENING.

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
922 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     HAIL             ORANGE CITY             43.00N 96.06W
06/26/2010  E1.00 INCH       SIOUX              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
932 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     HAIL             ORANGE CITY             43.00N 96.06W
06/26/2010  E1.00 INCH       SIOUX              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN ADDITION TO THE QUARTER SIZED HAIL, WINDS ARE
            ESTIMATED AT 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1024 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ORANGE CITY             43.00N 96.06W
06/26/2010                   SIOUX              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MODERATE FLOODING IN ORANGE CITY

&&

LAFLIN