Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
254 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY. A SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL ND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE THIS DISCUSSION FAIRLY BRIEF
TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THIS
MORNING FROM THE MCS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO
3000 J/KG IN THE SOUTH AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AROUND 50KT.
THEREFORE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WILL
MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 00Z...WITH THE BEST THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE DEVILS
LAKE BASING THAT GOT INUNDATED LAST NIGHT WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT EVENING STORMS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE
TO THE EAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY AFTER 06Z.

FOR WED...THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH A NW FLOW SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT POSSIBLE. THE GFS WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDER THOUGH GIVEN THE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.

FOR THU...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE. THE GFS IS PAINTING A SFC LOW MOVING INTO SE ND FRI
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 12Z. A LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE INTO MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND THUNDER MAY RE-DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

DK/GROCHOCINSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-230830-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
317 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INTO PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SCALE SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ON FRIDAY...AS A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

DK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
349 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

NDZ049-052-220945-
RANSOM ND-SARGENT ND-
349 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SARGENT AND WESTERN
RANSOM COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 343 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN
TO 35 MILES NORTH OF SPRING CREEK COLONY TO 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SPRING CREEK COLONY TO 11 MILES EAST OF SPRING CREEK COLONY...MOVING
TO THE EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
CRETE AROUND 425 AM CDT.
STRAUBVILLE...FORT RANSOM AND ENGLEVALE AROUND 430 AM CDT.
STIRUM...ELLIOTT AND COGSWELL AROUND 435 AM CDT.
BRAMPTON AROUND 440 AM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

G2

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