Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Grand Forks, ND

653 
WWUS53 KFGF 220917
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
417 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

NDC003-027-039-220930-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-100622T0930Z/
EDDY ND-GRIGGS ND-BARNES ND-
417 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN EDDY
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND BARNES AND GRIGGS COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 411 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF CARRINGTON TO 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF KENSAL TO NEAR COURTENAY TO 5 MILES EAST OF
SPIRITWOOD LAKE TO 3 MILES NORTH OF URBANA TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
ECKELSON TO 3 MILES NORTH OF MARION...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ROGERS AND HASTINGS AROUND 425 AM CDT.
  VALLEY CITY...WALUM AND SUTTON AROUND 430 AM CDT.

THEREAFTER SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDE REVERE...NOME...MOSE...KATHRYN...HANNAFORD AND DAZEY.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 94...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
NORTH DAKOTA MILE MARKER 280 AND NORTH DAKOTA MILE MARKER 300...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4769 9926 4768 9929 4774 9929 4773 9885
      4766 9844 4733 9808 4720 9797 4708 9789
      4693 9783 4678 9780 4664 9781 4664 9801
      4664 9842 4729 9845 4733 9845 4734 9848
      4760 9849 4760 9926
TIME...MOT...LOC 0917Z 254DEG 40KT 4739 9906 4738 9872
          4724 9850 4711 9839 4700 9831 4684 9824
          4667 9824

$$

G2

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
254 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY. A SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL ND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE THIS DISCUSSION FAIRLY BRIEF
TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THIS
MORNING FROM THE MCS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO
3000 J/KG IN THE SOUTH AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AROUND 50KT.
THEREFORE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WILL
MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 00Z...WITH THE BEST THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE DEVILS
LAKE BASING THAT GOT INUNDATED LAST NIGHT WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT EVENING STORMS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE
TO THE EAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY AFTER 06Z.

FOR WED...THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH A NW FLOW SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT POSSIBLE. THE GFS WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDER THOUGH GIVEN THE ACTIVE
PATTERN AND A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.

FOR THU...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE. THE GFS IS PAINTING A SFC LOW MOVING INTO SE ND FRI
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 12Z. A LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE INTO MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND THUNDER MAY RE-DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

DK/GROCHOCINSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-230830-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
317 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INTO PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SCALE SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ON FRIDAY...AS A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

DK