Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
252 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...
ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ELEVATED JUST ABOVE SFC LAYER DUE TO
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF 850 MB THETA-E CONTINUES TO HELP SPUR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FCST AREA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
A FEED OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES FROM WRN KS INTO CNTRL
NEBRASKA AND INTO SD/ER ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEABLE
FUTURE. SOME OF THESE WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE WARM SECTOR AND AREA JUST SOUTH OF
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WARM FRONT SEPARATING TEMPS IN THE 60S FROM
THE LOW-MID 80S EXTENDS FROM ABOUT BEMIDJI TO ADA TO LA MOURE ND.
SFC TEMPS ALMOST 90 AT ELBOW LAKE. DEW PTS ALSO IN THE LOW 70S IN
WARM SECTOR. MODELS DOING WELL SO FAR IN HAVING WARM FRONT LIFT TO
NR A BAUDETTE TO THIEF RIVER TO GRAND FORKS TO COOPERSTOWN LINE
BTWN 21Z-23Z. SFC BASED CAPES IN WARM SECTOR NEAR 4000 J/KG WITH
LITTLE CAP LEFT PER SPC WEBPAGE. AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO EXPAND
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ALMOST CERTAIN TO HAVE INCREASE IN SVR
STORMS NEXT 1-3 HOURS. TORNADIC STORMS QUITE PSBL DUE TO VERY HIGH
0-2KM VGP'S PROGGED TO BE UPWARDS OF 0.8 JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT.

TOR WATCH 215 VALID UNTIL 10 PM FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FCST AREA.

WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF ERN ND THRU 06Z AS
PREV ISSUED. LOCALIZED RAINS FROM TODAYS STORMS OF 1.5 TO 2.50
INCHES IN 1 HOUR OR LESS.

DRY PUSH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM NE
COLORADO/WRN NEBRASKA TO WRN ND BY 06Z. THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z.

TUESDAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN...ALMOST A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS DVL BASIN WHERE
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME.
NAM SOUNDING INDICATES 45 KT WIND TO MIX DOWN IN GUSTS IN THE DVL
BASIN. WILL LET MIDSHIFT ISSUE ADVISORY AS TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH
THIS EVENINGS SEVERE WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SUNNY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND. TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY WILL START TO SEE INFLUENCE OF NEXT SYSTEM WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN OF A
CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. WITH RISING THICKNESSES EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO
AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE WITH 850MB
TEMPS IN THE 14 TO 18 DEGREE RANGE SETTLE OVER THE REGION. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

AVIATION...
COMPLEX SCENARIO WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH OUT THE
AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING. IFR TO MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DVL TO REMAIN ON COOL
SIDE OF WARM FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS AND NE WINDS. GFK...TVF AND FAR
EXPECTED TO MOVE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS FIELDS OF CU MOVE THROUGH.
BJI TAF SITE TOOK A LIGHTNING STRIKE THIS MORNING AND COMMS WENT
DOWN...A RETURN TO OPERATION IS UNKNOWN UTNNIL THEN AMD NOT SKED.
TSRA SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026>029-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

RIDDLE/JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
510 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

NDZ006-014-015-024-026>029-038-049-052-054-251200-
TOWNER-BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-BARNES-
RANSOM-SARGENT-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
510 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THUS SOILS ARE
SATURATED. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ007-008-016-030-039-053-
251200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-TRAILL-CASS-RICHLAND-
510 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
144 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

MNZ005-006-009-241945-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-NORTH BELTRAMI MN-ROSEAU MN-
144 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BELTRAMI...LAKE OF THE
WOODS AND EASTERN ROSEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 140 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 33 MILES NORTH OF CLEARBROOK...OR 42 MILES EAST OF THIEF
RIVER FALLS...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
OTTO...MALCOLM AND FOURTOWN AROUND 150 PM CDT.
WASKISH AROUND 155 PM CDT.
GATES CORNER AROUND 205 PM CDT.
OAKS CORNER AROUND 210 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

HOPKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
312 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             HALSTAD                 47.35N 96.82W
05/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       NORMAN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
345 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 ENE VALLEY CITY       46.93N 97.97W
05/24/2010                   BARNES             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS A FUNNEL EXTENDING NEARLY TO THE
            GROUND JUST NORTH OF EXIT 294 ON I-94... JUST EAST OF
            VALLEY CITY.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
406 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             4 WNW BELTRAMI          47.57N 96.61W
05/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       POLK               MN   PUBLIC

&&

GGUST

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
411 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             RUTLAND                 46.05N 97.51W
05/24/2010  E0.75 INCH       SARGENT            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL STONES.

&&

GGUST