Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO BE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH DETAILS ALWAYS HARD TO FIGURE OUT. WILL
USE A BLEND.

VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND STRONG 850MB WARM FRONT SURGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN FA ATTM WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR 40-50KNTS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STORMS WITH
SEVERE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD
PROPAGATION THROUGH THE MORNING. SEVERE WATCH 211 COVERS THIS
WELL...WILL NEED TO WATCH IF THE CURRENT WATCH NEEDS TO BE
EXPANDED NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING.

CONSIDERING UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY...THINKING THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS THAT MOVES ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN INSTABILITY OF
AIRMASS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES...AGAIN COULD BE SOME SEVERE
STORMS. A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE...AND THEN MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOW
BEGINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SKY COVER...BUT IF SOME CLEARING
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP. ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH POSITION OF WARM FRONT...BUT
DEFINITELY SFC BASED STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW FA
WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. THIS COULD BE THE PERIOD WHERE
THE STRONGEST OF THE STORMS TODAY WILL OCCUR. DRY AIRMASS THEN
MOVES FROM WEST THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET. INSTABILITY DOES WEAKEN...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE
THREAT GOING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...COULD BE A LONG DAY OF ON AND OFF
SEVERE WEATHER. SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS.

FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WHERE HEAVY RAINS
FELL LAST NIGHT. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING...AND ADD
RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES. MODELS SIGNALING SEVERAL SHOTS FOR
CONVECTION TO THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

A MORE QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED TUE-WED. SHOULD BE DECENT MIXING ON
TUESDAY WITH 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 35 KNTS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...NOT A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT THIS PERIOD WITH ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER. BRIEF LOOK AT 00Z ECMWF/GFS LEAD TO NO CHANGES
REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY MONDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH HEAVIER STORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026>029-038-049-052-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

NDZ006-014-015-024-026>029-038-054-242030-
TOWNER-BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-BARNES-
WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS ON MONDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN FELL IN THIS AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN MORE FLASH
FLOODING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ007-008-016-030-039-049-
052-053-242030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-TRAILL-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS ON MONDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
425 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

MNZ009-016-017-023-024-241015-
HUBBARD MN-NORTH BELTRAMI MN-NORTH CLEARWATER MN-SOUTH BELTRAMI
MN-SOUTH CLEARWATER MN-
425 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BELTRAMI...EASTERN
CLEARWATER AND NORTHWESTERN HUBBARD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 420 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEMIDJI...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT
40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM...ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WILTON...SOLWAY AND SHEVLIN AROUND 435 AM CDT.
PINEWOOD AROUND 445 AM CDT.
PUPOSKY AND LEONARD AROUND 450 AM CDT.
DEBS AROUND 455 AM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

G2