River Flood Warning 61, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
550 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

.AVIATION...
A DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO S CENTRAL TX
TODAY WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.
THEREFORE VARIABLE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH BRIEFLY LOWER
IFR CONDITIONS IN IN HEAVY RAIN. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PERIODS OF
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS OF 3-5 THSD FEET. THIS EVENING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN BY 03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/

DISCUSSION...
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOOD EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING.
TRAINING CONVERGENCE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE...NOW IN CENTRAL
TX...CONTINUING NEAR THE I35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU ABOUT 12Z BEFORE MODELS INDICATE A LET UP
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. HAVE RECONFIGURED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
REMOVE THE 4 WESTERN MOST COUNTIES WHERE LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN
THUS FAR...AND EXPECTING MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
HERMINE. EVEN THOUGH HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY
FROM OUR AREA...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND SUBJECT TO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FROM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXTENDED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ANY REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SATURATED SOILS WILL BE QUICK TO ADD TO
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS.

BY TONIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF HERMINE MOVE INTO OK AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE AREA...WILL SEE
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED AIRMASS SHOWERS FROM HEATING ON
ANY GIVEN DAY...HOWEVER HAVE GONE WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS...AND ABOVE
NORMAL MIN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  78  92  78  94 /  80  30  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  77  93  77  94 /  80  30  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  77  93  76  94 /  70  30  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  75  90  76  90 /  70  30  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  76  93  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  77  92  77  92 /  80  30  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  76  92  77  93 /  60  30  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  76  92  77  94 /  70  30  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  77  91  78  92 /  80  30  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  78  92  78  93 /  70  30  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  77  93  78  94 /  70  30  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...
LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...
WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

01/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
520 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-091030-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
520 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE TODAY.

A DEEP MOIST TROPICAL INFLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF HERMINE WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED ESTIMATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 TO 15 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY UNTIL 6 PM. IN ADDITION TO FLASH
FLOODING TODAY...RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...RIVER FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
448 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AUSTIN                  30.27N  97.74W
09/08/2010                   TRAVIS             TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            CITY OF AUSTIN AND TRAVIS COUNTY ROAD CLOSURE WEBSITE
            REPORTS 32 ROADS CLOSED ACROSS AUSTIN AND TRAVIS COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000488

PAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
558 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW BRAUNFELS           29.70N  98.12W
09/08/2010                   COMAL              TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            THE COUNTY ROAD CLOSURE WEBSITE REPORTS 10 ROADS CLOSED
            ACROSS PORTIONS OF COMAL COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000489

PAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
723 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW NEW BRAUNFELS     29.68N  98.16W
09/08/2010  M7.10 INCH       COMAL              TX   COCORAHS

            THE DRY COMAL CREEK WAS AT 16.4 FEET AND FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000490

MCDONALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
928 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW BOERNE            29.83N  98.80W
09/08/2010  M3.33 INCH       KENDALL            TX   COCORAHS

            CIBOLO CREEK UPSTREAM OF BOERNE HAS RISEN 6 FEET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000491

MCDONALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
931 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N LAKEHILLS           29.63N  98.94W
09/08/2010                   BANDERA            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS IN AND AROUND LAKE HILLS ARE IN FLOOD AND CLOSED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000492

MCDONALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1007 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW MARBLE FALLS      30.56N  98.32W
09/08/2010                   BURNET             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOST OF THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN MARBLE FALLS AND
            HORSESHOE BAY ARE CLOSED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000493

MCDONALD