River Flood Warning 51, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1157 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT TERMINALS ALONG THE
I 35 CORRIDOR AS TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
WHILE INTERACTING WITH OUTER BANDS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM HERMINE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF I 35.

TAF/LAMP...GFS LAMP AND NAM MOS AGREE ON IFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT
06Z THROUGH 10Z AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND PART OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
BACK TO THE AREA AROUND 21Z/22Z AND GOING BACK TO MVFR AT ABOUT
02Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/

UPDATE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE LOCATED NEAR BRADY IS MOVING
NORTH...NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.  RAIN BANDS WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR AND EAST OF A
BURNET TO PLEASANTON LINE...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR BURNET TO GEORGETOWN AND AUSTIN...
AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR SAN MARCOS
AND NEW BRAUNFELS. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE IN WAKE OF HERMINE AND PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
HILL COUNTRY THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.
AS HERMINE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND THE 500 HPA TROF
IS OVER THE SW U.S...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE.
BY THURSDAY SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER A COMPOSITE OF SOLUTIONS SHOWS A WEAKENED HEIGHT
FIELD CONTINUING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS A PROGRESSIVE 500 HPA
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES... PROVIDING MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THE PROGRESSIVE
500 HPA TROF WILL MOVE NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. WITH THIS TYPE OF SEPTEMBER WEATHER PATTERN...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH MAINLY DAYTIME OR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/

AVIATION...
OUTER BANDS FROM HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE I 35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY OVER THE MOST
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DRT FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AS CIGS GO
BELOW 1000 FEET OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE I 35 CORRIDOR.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ABOUT 17Z/18Z AND BACK TO
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST AREAS. WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/

DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE..NOW IN THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
THE STORM WILL LEAVE A WIDE OPEN GULF AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
ITS WAKE..RESULTING IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW AS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ARE A POSSIBILITY..
ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S
TROPICAL BANDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES)
MAY BE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTER'S TRACK AS WELL
AS ALONG THE ONSHORE RAIN BANDS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON..PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALL BELOW 2 INCHES OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS WHILE A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 90S..AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL STILL HELP TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD
FRIDAY..RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. THE RIDGE WILL HANG STRONG
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW
SEA-BREEZE TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..LITTLE RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  88  77  93  78 /  90  60  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  88  77  93  77 /  90  60  20  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  88  77  93  77 /  90  60  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  75  91  76 /  90  60  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  91  77  94  77 /  50  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  88  76  93  77 /  90  60  30  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  88  77  93  76 /  80  50  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  88  76  93  77 /  90  60  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  89  77  92  79 /  90  60  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  88  78  92  78 /  80  60  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  88  78  93  78 /  80  60  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

11/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
757 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-090100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
757 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE
I 35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS OUTER BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MOVE NORTHWARD. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS
THESE BANDS CONTINUE TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF IN
COMBINATION WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND SMALL CIRCULATIONS
WITHIN THE THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FLASH FLOODING OVER URBAN LOCATIONS AS WELL AS SMALL CREEKS AND
RIVERS AND LOW CROSSING AREAS ARE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. EXPECT TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THE NEXT 10 TO 18 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE REMAINS OF HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING STILL
POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. RIVER FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM RUNOFF
FROM ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1014 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     FLASH FLOOD      AUSTIN                  30.27N  97.74W
09/07/2010                   TRAVIS             TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            6200 JOE TANNER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000476

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1036 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW NEW BRAUNFELS     29.69N  98.17W
09/07/2010                   COMAL              TX   COCORAHS

            THE DRY COMAL CREEK IS UP TWO FEET OVER THE LOW WATER
            CROSSING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000477

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1101 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SEGUIN                  29.58N 97.97W
09/07/2010                   GUADALUPE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS SEGUIN AND WESTERN
            GUADALUPE COUNTY DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1102 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW WEST LAKE HILLS   30.34N  97.82W
09/07/2010                   TRAVIS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER GETTING INTO TWO HOMES AT THE 2900 BLOCK OF
            RIVERCREST DRIVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000478

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1113 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W BRUSHY CREEK        30.51N  97.78W
09/07/2010                   WILLIAMSON         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRUSHY CREEK ROAD AT BRUSHY BEND DRIVE AND NUMEROUS
            OTHER ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000479

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE SAN LEANNA        30.16N  97.81W
09/07/2010                   TRAVIS             TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            10100 DAVID MOORE DRIVE AND SEVERAL OTHER ROADS CLOSED
            AROUND THE AUSTIN METRO AREA DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000480

SBS