Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CONTINUED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN THE SOURCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION YESTERDAY
BECAME NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOR TODAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. AS THIS
SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP OVER THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE LAYER PRESENT AND CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY BUILDING
IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TAIL END OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID MORNING.

THE FORCE THAT WILL HELP PUSH THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...SITUATING ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND RISING TEMPERATURES. BY
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A BKN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN
NWRN MO AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS MVG SE. GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY...THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MV SE INTO THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTN. ONCE THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH...A
WEAK BOUNDARY IN SERN NEB WILL PUSH SE. THIS WEAK FRONT MAY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS...THEREFORE WILL
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS UNTIL SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT. AFT MIDNIGHT...THE WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE TERMINALS. GIVEN THE MOIST AIR
MASS AND POTENTIALLY MOIST GROUND...HAVE INSERTED THE THREAT OF FOG.
IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS LATE TNGT
AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY.

08

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1257 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-311800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1257 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS LATER TONIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE IOWA BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 36.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE HOT AND HUMID...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN
100 AND 110 MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH HEAT INDICES MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>