Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CONTINUED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN THE SOURCE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION YESTERDAY
BECAME NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOR TODAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. AS THIS
SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP OVER THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH A DEEP MOISTURE LAYER PRESENT AND CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY BUILDING
IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TAIL END OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID MORNING.

THE FORCE THAT WILL HELP PUSH THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...SITUATING ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND RISING TEMPERATURES. BY
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A BKN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN
NWRN MO AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS MVG SE. GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY...THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MV SE INTO THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTN. ONCE THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH...A
WEAK BOUNDARY IN SERN NEB WILL PUSH SE. THIS WEAK FRONT MAY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS...THEREFORE WILL
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS UNTIL SHORTLY AFT MIDNIGHT. AFT MIDNIGHT...THE WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE TERMINALS. GIVEN THE MOIST AIR
MASS AND POTENTIALLY MOIST GROUND...HAVE INSERTED THE THREAT OF FOG.
IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS LATE TNGT
AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY.

08

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1257 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-311800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1257 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT DRIVES SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS LATER TONIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE IOWA BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 36.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE HOT AND HUMID...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN
100 AND 110 MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH HEAT INDICES MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
123 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

MOZ020-021-028-301900-
BUCHANAN MO-CLINTON MO-PLATTE MO-
123 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BUCHANAN...SOUTHWESTERN
CLINTON AND NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 121 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF RUSHVILLE...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
WESTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PLATTE CITY...AGENCY...DEARBORN...CAMDEN POINT...TRACY...
  EDGERTON...FAUCETT AND RIDGELY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3971 9485 3952 9451 3945 9458 3945 9461
      3943 9461 3930 9475 3957 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 312DEG 31KT 3957 9488

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
152 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

MOZ015-023-024-031-301915-
CARROLL MO-GRUNDY MO-LINN MO-LIVINGSTON MO-
152 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY...
SOUTHWESTERN LINN...LIVINGSTON AND NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTIES IN NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CHILLICOTHE TO CHILLICOTHE TO BRECKENRIDGE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CHILLICOTHE...UTICA...WHEELING...MEADVILLE...MOORESVILLE...
  LUDLOW...DAWN AND AVALON.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4002 9346 3982 9319 3963 9333 3953 9365
      3970 9377 3983 9377 3987 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 318DEG 24KT 3992 9345 3980 9357
          3975 9375

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
154 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

MOZ021-022-028-029-301930-
CALDWELL MO-CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-PLATTE MO-
154 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALDWELL...
CLINTON...NORTHEASTERN PLATTE AND NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

AT 150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
PLATTSBURG TO GOWER TO EDGERTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  PLATTSBURG...LATHROP...TRIMBLE...HOLT...RIDGELY AND TURNEY.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3954 9469 3953 9461 3958 9461 3970 9448
      3964 9415 3952 9421 3952 9422 3951 9422
      3946 9423 3936 9443 3949 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 287DEG 28KT 3965 9443 3954 9453
          3949 9464

DEROCHE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>