Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN ELONGATED S/W TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA EMBEDDED
IN BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A WEAK MCS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NE. THROUGH DAYBREAK...EXPECTING THIS MCS TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...AS INSTABILITY RAPIDLY
DECREASES FURTHER EAST.

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A RAPID
WARMUP BY WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE REALLY OF NO STRONG HELP...AS
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE FCST DETAILS. THE 00Z NAM AND
TO SOME DEGREE THE 00Z GFS HAVE BOTH STRUGGLED MIGHTILY
OVERDEVELOPING THE H50 S/W CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NE. THE OVER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS LEADING TO POOR RESOLUTION OF BOUNDARY
LAYER FEATURES AND THUS SEVERELY IMPACTING THE FCST BEYOND TODAY.
ATTM...PREFER A BLEND OF THE LOWER RESOLUTION ECMWF/GEM...WITH SOME
MESOSCALE SUPPORT FROM THE NSSL-WRF AND A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED 06Z NAM.
THIS SAID...INITIAL CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER SE INTO THE CWA THROUGH DAY BREAK ONLY SLOWLY CRAWLING INTO
NORTHERN MO. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP AS
IT MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF
A SFC TROUGH STILL RESIDING WELL NW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NE AND
CENTRAL SD AND ITS IMPACTS REMAIN IN QUESTION. FEEL THAT SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THAT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CWA TODAY WHICH COULD HAMPER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS THIS S/W OVER NE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT FAIRLY QUICKLY
TODAY WITH THE MAIN ENERGY PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN MO...AND A
TRAILING TROUGH AXIS INTO CENTRAL KS. SHOULD MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE COME TO FRUITION...DECENT SHEAR PROVIDED BY A
ABNORMALLY STRONG MID-LVL JETLET WOULD PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE DEVELOPMENT RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTN AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SE A BIT. SOUNDINGS APPEAR MINIMALLY
CAPPED...WITH INHIBITION ALREADY NON- EXISTENT BY NOON.

WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL VERY SCT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORMS CONGEALING INTO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH
DRY POCKET OF AIR ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS. FZING LVLS
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...BUT ADEQUATE SHEAR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT LARGER
HAIL. DUE TO THE SPEED AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE S/W STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS FAIRLY RAPIDLY SE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH LOWER POPS
EXPECTED IN THE EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.

FOR MONDAY...REALLY FEEL THAT MUCH OF MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE
REGION SHOULD BE UNDER S/W RIDGING. HAVE TRIED TO TRIM BACK
POPS...WHICH MAY BE TRIMMED BACK FURTHER IN LATER FCSTS. TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER A BIT ON MONDAY WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

FOR MON NIGHT...ANOTHER RATHER PROGRESSIVE S/W TROUGH WILL ZIP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS S/W PASSES OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS IT SHOULD DEVELOP CONVECTION MON AFTN AND EVE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN MO. AN MCS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD...WITH THE FAVORED AREA JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WOULD SUGGEST ONLY SCT WORDING ATTM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RATHER RAPID AND STRONG WARMUP WILL BE ON
TAP AS MID-LVL RIDGING POPS UP IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
AHEAD OF STRONGER UPR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
READINGS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPR 80S...LIMITED BY A SLOW
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS. AFTER WHATS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUE NIGHT...STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH THE NOSE OF
A +24C TO +26C H85 THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD BY WED MORNING. STRONG
MIXING SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S...ALSO PUSHING HEAT
INDEX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 100S.

THURSDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE FURTHER FOR LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU AS MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN EDGING A SFC FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STILL THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
IN THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WITH A WARM FRONT NEAR THE AREA...BUT
FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A VICINITY IN THE TAF UNTIL SEEING ANY
MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. KSTJ SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE
JUST ON THE FRINGES OF ANY REDEVELOPMENT...SO WILL JUST GO WITH A CB
GROUP. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECTING FOG AND STRATUS DECK
TO DEVELOP.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
105 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
105 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE VICINITY
OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...JUST SOUTH
OF KANSAS CITY...INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ALSO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL BE OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...LEADING TO AREAS OF FLOODING
AND FLASH FLOODING.

IN NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS MAY OCCUR BUT
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOWER. STILL ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGER HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

BY THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION...ENDING THE THREAT OF STORMS IN EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI EARLY ON...THEN OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI BY MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO REPORTS
OF FLOODING ARE REQUESTED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

KSZ057-105-MOZ043-053-111815-
BATES MO-CASS MO-JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI AND SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WESTERN CASS AND
NORTHWESTERN BATES COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 115 PM
CDT...

AT 1231 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM CONTINUES TO DISPLAY WEAK ROTATION...AND COULD
INTENSIFY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SPRING HILL...LOUISBURG...BELTON...RAYMORE...PECULIAR...
  CLEVELAND...DREXEL...FREEMAN...HILLSDALE...WAGSTAFF...CHILES...
  BUCYRUS...STILLWELL AND WEST LINE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3878 9429 3840 9451 3871 9504 3887 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 293DEG 25KT 3874 9484

21